Norges Bank Statement comparison — 18 September 2025 vs 22 January 2026
This Norges Bank statement comparison covers 18 September 2025 and 22 January 2026. Overall, the newer document was mixed. The January statement reflects a hawkish tilt on inflation but a dovish shift on labour, leaving the rate path in a neutral holding pattern. The committee appears to be waiting for more disinflation evidence before delivering the next cut, suggesting a prolonged pause.
What changed
Mixed. The January statement reflects a hawkish tilt on inflation but a dovish shift on labour, leaving the rate path in a neutral holding pattern. The committee appears to be waiting for more disinflation evidence before delivering the next cut, suggesting a prolonged pause.
- Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation assessment escalated from 'still above target' with slowing disinflation to 'still too high' with core inflation near 3%, indicating upward pressure from food and services.
- Labour Market — More dovish. Labour market characterization shifted from higher potential output being mildly disinflationary to explicit softening with rising unemployment and falling employment.
- Rate Path — Little changed. Policy rate held at 4% after prior cut, with forward guidance mixed: cautious 'not in a hurry' tone balances dovish expectations of future cuts, overall stance unchanged.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Geopolitical uncertainty added as a risk factor, but no directional shift in balance sheet or risk management language.
Key wording
Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee decided to reduce the policy rate to 4 percent.
Incoming data since June indicate that there is a little less spare capacity in the economy, and that inflation may remain elevated for a little longer than projected in June. Therefore, we will probably not reduce the policy rate ahead as quickly as envisaged before summer.
If the economy evolves broadly as currently projected, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year. We do not envisage a large decrease in the policy rate ahead. The forecast presented today is consistent with one rate cut per year in the coming three years.
Inflation has fallen back substantially from the peak, but the pace of disinflation has slowed. According to last week’s data, consumer price inflation now stands at 3.5 percent.
The recent upswing in economic growth has occurred without firms increasing their workforce to the same extent. It therefore appears that potential output is slightly higher than previously assumed.
If the outlook indicates that inflation will remain elevated for longer than projected, a higher policy rate than currently envisaged may be required. If the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster or labour market conditions weaken, the policy rate may be lowered faster.
Norges Bank’s Monetary and Financial Stability Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4 percent.
If the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the year.
We are not in a hurry to reduce the policy rate further. The job of tackling inflation has not been fully completed, and if the policy rate is lowered too quickly, inflation could remain above target for too long.
Inflation is still too high. Inflation excluding energy prices has been close to 3 percent since autumn 2024.
Unemployment has increased somewhat in recent years, and the employment rate has decreased a little.
The interest rate forecast we presented in December was consistent with one to two rate cuts in the course of 2026.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
18 September 2025 statement · 22 January 2026 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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