Reserve Bank of Australia Statement comparison — 30 September 2025 vs 3 February 2026

This Reserve Bank of Australia statement comparison covers 30 September 2025 and 3 February 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The current document marks a decisive hawkish shift across all dimensions. The rate hike and explicit forward guidance for further tightening signal that persistent inflation and tight labour market conditions warrant continued policy tightening.

What changed

More hawkish. The current document marks a decisive hawkish shift across all dimensions. The rate hike and explicit forward guidance for further tightening signal that persistent inflation and tight labour market conditions warrant continued policy tightening.

Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation narrative escalated from 'upward pressure' to 'too strong' and 'uncomfortable' level, signalling deeper concern.
Labour Market — More hawkish. Labour market framing shifted from 'solid but a little tight' to 'really strong' with 'unit labour costs running hot', indicating greater inflationary pressure.
Rate Path — More hawkish. Policy action moved from hold to a 25bp hike with explicit guidance for further increases, replacing the prior neutral data-dependent stance.
Balance Sheet — More hawkish. Introduction of balance sheet concern: 'financial conditions have eased' and uncertainty about restrictiveness, absent in prior document.

Key wording

30 September 2025

the Board decided to leave the cash rate on hold at 3.6 per cent.
rate path: No change as expected; focus shifts to future data.

Inflation remains within the target range, but recent data indicate there could be a bit more upward pressure than we thought in August.
inflation: Signals potential persistence in inflation, reducing odds of near-term cuts.

The labour market remains solid and although employment growth has been slower in recent months we judge it’s still a little tight relative to full employment.
labour market: Labour tightness supports caution; slower growth noted but not alarming.

The Board sees the risks as broadly balanced and it remains data-driven.
rate path: No clear direction; reinforces meeting-by-meeting approach.

On balance domestic data since the August meeting have been in line with or a little stronger than what we were expecting in our forecasts.
rate path: Stronger data reduces urgency for further accommodation.

we’ll have more information available in November and we’re looking forward, we’re trying to see where this might take us in terms of inflation and employment and then we can make a decision in November about whether it’s down again or maybe it’s hold again
rate path: Open outcome for November; cuts not pre-committed.

3 February 2026

the Board decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85 per cent.
rate path: Explicit rate hike signals near-term tightening.

The recent run of data gives the Board a clear enough view that the underlying pulse of inflation is too strong.
inflation: Inflation momentum remains a key concern.

conditions in the labour market have held up well and unemployment has remained lower than thought.
labour market: Tight labour market adds to inflation persistence risk.

The Board will continue to be driven by what the incoming data tells us about where the economy has been and what this means for the outlook.
rate path: Data-dependent stance leaves future moves open.

the Board generally feel that at the margin maybe conditions were just a little bit loose, particularly given what we're seeing in the recovery of private demand.
rate path: Conditions perceived as loose, supporting rate hike rationale.

it raised interest rates today
rate path: Confirms the rate hike decision, which is the key policy action.

Official documents

Background reading

30 September 2025 statement · 3 February 2026 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology