Reserve Bank of Australia Statement comparison — 4 November 2025 vs 3 February 2026
This Reserve Bank of Australia statement comparison covers 4 November 2025 and 3 February 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The overall shift is unambiguously hawkish: the central bank moved from holding rates with a cautious bias to delivering a rate hike and signaling further tightening. This signals a clear prioritization of inflation control, with the next decision likely to be another hike if data remains strong.
What changed
More hawkish. The overall shift is unambiguously hawkish: the central bank moved from holding rates with a cautious bias to delivering a rate hike and signaling further tightening. This signals a clear prioritization of inflation control, with the next decision likely to be another hike if data remains strong.
- Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation rhetoric escalated from a surprise undershoot to an explicit description of the underlying pulse as too strong and uncomfortable, signaling heightened concern.
- Labour Market — More hawkish. Labour market characterization intensified from 'a little bit tight' to 'really strong' with hot unit labour costs, reinforcing inflation persistence risks.
- Rate Path — More hawkish. Policy action shifted from a hawkish hold to a 25bp hike with explicit conditional guidance for further tightening, marking a decisive hawkish pivot.
- Balance Sheet — More hawkish. Introduced a new hawkish balance sheet assessment noting eased financial conditions and uncertainty about restrictiveness, adding a tightening bias.
Key wording
the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60 per cent.
trimmed mean inflation, which is how we track underlying inflation in the economy, rose by 1 per cent over the September quarter, materially higher than our 0.6 per cent forecast in August.
the cost of new dwellings and market services both increased by more than expected and inflation in these components tends to be more persistent.
we judge that the labour market is still a little bit tight relative to full employment.
We still think there’s a bit of excess demand in the economy.
the Board will remain cautious, driven by what the incoming data tell us about the outlook.
the Board decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85 per cent.
The recent run of data gives the Board a clear enough view that the underlying pulse of inflation is too strong.
the Board members are uncomfortable with inflation at the level it is.
conditions in the labour market have held up well and unemployment has remained lower than thought.
The Board will continue to be driven by what the incoming data tells us about where the economy has been and what this means for the outlook.
the Board generally feel that at the margin maybe conditions were just a little bit loose, particularly given what we're seeing in the recovery of private demand.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
4 November 2025 statement · 3 February 2026 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
The Cadence Brief
The one number that moved central bank pricing — delivered each weekday morning.