Reserve Bank of Australia Statement comparison — 9 December 2025 vs 3 February 2026

This Reserve Bank of Australia statement comparison covers 9 December 2025 and 3 February 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The current document represents a decisive hawkish shift: the Board delivered a 25bp rate hike and signaled further tightening may be needed, driven by persistent inflation, a tight labour market, and easing financial conditions. The next decision likely another hike if data remains strong.

What changed

More hawkish. The current document represents a decisive hawkish shift: the Board delivered a 25bp rate hike and signaled further tightening may be needed, driven by persistent inflation, a tight labour market, and easing financial conditions. The next decision likely another hike if data remains strong.

Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation concerns escalated from 'bit stronger than expected' and 'signs of persistence' to 'underlying pulse is too strong' and Board members 'uncomfortable'.
Labour Market — More hawkish. Labour market assessment shifted from 'evolved as expected, a bit tight' to 'held up well', 'unemployment lower than thought', and 'unit labour costs running still quite hot'.
Rate Path — More hawkish. Forward guidance moved from ruling out cuts and introducing possibility of hike to an actual 25bp rate hike with conditional guidance for further increases.
Balance Sheet — More hawkish. Prior document had no explicit balance-sheet signal; current flags easing financial conditions as a concern warranting tighter policy.

Key wording

9 December 2025

the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.6 per cent.
rate path: No change as expected, but the context is hawkish.

Inflation came in a bit stronger than expected in the September quarter. Some of this looked to be temporary factors but there were signs of persistence in some items.
inflation: Inflation beat expectations and persistence is emerging, challenging the disinflation narrative.

The Board therefore assessed that the balance of risk to inflation had tilted a bit to the upside.
rate path: Explicit shift in risk assessment toward upside inflation risk, increasing the chance of a hike.

We didn’t consider the case for a rate cut at all.
rate path: Ruling out cuts outright, reinforcing a tightening bias.

the Board might have to consider whether or not it’s appropriate to keep interest rates where they are or in fact at some point raise them.
rate path: Directly introduces the possibility of a rate hike, a significant shift in guidance.

The labour market has evolved broadly as expected and remains a bit tight.
labour market: No surprise but tightness reinforces that the economy may not need stimulus.

3 February 2026

the Board decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85 per cent.
rate path: Explicit rate hike signals near-term tightening.

The recent run of data gives the Board a clear enough view that the underlying pulse of inflation is too strong.
inflation: Inflation momentum remains a key concern.

The Board will continue to be driven by what the incoming data tells us about where the economy has been and what this means for the outlook.
rate path: Data-dependent stance leaves future moves open.

the Board generally feel that at the margin maybe conditions were just a little bit loose, particularly given what we're seeing in the recovery of private demand.
rate path: Conditions perceived as loose, supporting rate hike rationale.

it raised interest rates today
rate path: Confirms the rate hike decision, which is the key policy action.

conditions in the labour market have held up well and unemployment has remained lower than thought.
labour market: Tight labour market adds to inflation persistence risk.

Official documents

Background reading

9 December 2025 statement · 3 February 2026 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology