Reserve Bank of Australia Statement comparison — 4 November 2025 vs 17 March 2026
This Reserve Bank of Australia statement comparison covers 4 November 2025 and 17 March 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The current document represents a clear hawkish shift from the prior, as the Board moved from holding rates at 3.60% to hiking 25bp to 4.10%, citing renewed inflation pressures and tight labour market. The forward guidance, while data-dependent, leans hawkish with explicit willingness to accept recession if needed, though the split vote introduces uncertainty, suggesting a high bar for easing and possible further hikes if inflation does not moderate.
What changed
More hawkish. The current document represents a clear hawkish shift from the prior, as the Board moved from holding rates at 3.60% to hiking 25bp to 4.10%, citing renewed inflation pressures and tight labour market. The forward guidance, while data-dependent, leans hawkish with explicit willingness to accept recession if needed, though the split vote introduces uncertainty, suggesting a high bar for easing and possible further hikes if inflation does not moderate.
- Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation narrative escalates from a surprises-driven overshoot to explicit upside risks and near-term spikes, reinforcing a hawkish bias.
- Labour Market — More hawkish. Labour market characterisation remains tight, with the current statement reinforcing that no softening is evident, consistent with a hawkish stance.
- Rate Path — More hawkish. Rate path shifts from an unexpected hold to a 25bp hike with explicit upside inflation risks, reinforcing a hawkish stance despite some conditional dovish caveats.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet signals in either document; stance unchanged.
Key wording
the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60 per cent.
trimmed mean inflation, which is how we track underlying inflation in the economy, rose by 1 per cent over the September quarter, materially higher than our 0.6 per cent forecast in August.
the cost of new dwellings and market services both increased by more than expected and inflation in these components tends to be more persistent.
we judge that the labour market is still a little bit tight relative to full employment.
We still think there’s a bit of excess demand in the economy.
the Board will remain cautious, driven by what the incoming data tell us about the outlook.
Today as you know, the Board decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1 per cent.
Taken together, the data suggests there is slightly more excess demand in the economy than we thought in February, and inflationary pressures are therefore somewhat greater.
This all suggests that the risks to inflation have tilted to the upside.
we’re not seeing it show up in the unemployment rate, the underemployment rate and we’re not seeing it show up in things like the forward-looking indicators like vacancies, job openings, layoffs
The Board concluded that the cash rate was not at a level consistent with returning inflation to target within a reasonable time frame.
The Board will continue to be guided by incoming data and what it tells us about the economy and the outlook.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
4 November 2025 statement · 17 March 2026 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
The Cadence Brief
The one number that moved central bank pricing — delivered each weekday morning.