Reserve Bank of Australia Statement comparison — 9 December 2025 vs 17 March 2026

This Reserve Bank of Australia statement comparison covers 9 December 2025 and 17 March 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. Overall, the central bank delivered a hawkish pivot with an actual rate hike and upgraded inflation assessment, signaling that further tightening remains likely unless global conditions deteriorate sharply. The next decision likely hinges on incoming inflation and labour data, with the Board split indicating high uncertainty.

What changed

More hawkish. Overall, the central bank delivered a hawkish pivot with an actual rate hike and upgraded inflation assessment, signaling that further tightening remains likely unless global conditions deteriorate sharply. The next decision likely hinges on incoming inflation and labour data, with the Board split indicating high uncertainty.

Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation assessment intensified from 'stronger than expected' and emerging persistence to explicit 'excess demand' and 'upside risks' with acknowledgement of external inflation impulse.
Labour Market — More hawkish. Labour market stance shifted from neutral 'evolved as expected, a bit tight' to explicit hawkish noting no softening in unemployment, underemployment, or forward indicators.
Rate Path — More hawkish. Rate path shifted from merely considering a hike to actually delivering a 25bp hike, with explicit statement that current rate insufficient to return inflation to target, though conditional easing language appears for extreme downside scenarios.
Balance Sheet — More hawkish. Risk balance remains skewed to the upside for inflation, with explicit statement that 'risks have tilted to the upside,' but current also acknowledges geopolitical downside risks that could alter path.

Key wording

9 December 2025

the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.6 per cent.
rate path: No change as expected, but the context is hawkish.

Inflation came in a bit stronger than expected in the September quarter. Some of this looked to be temporary factors but there were signs of persistence in some items.
inflation: Inflation beat expectations and persistence is emerging, challenging the disinflation narrative.

The Board therefore assessed that the balance of risk to inflation had tilted a bit to the upside.
rate path: Explicit shift in risk assessment toward upside inflation risk, increasing the chance of a hike.

We didn’t consider the case for a rate cut at all.
rate path: Ruling out cuts outright, reinforcing a tightening bias.

the Board might have to consider whether or not it’s appropriate to keep interest rates where they are or in fact at some point raise them.
rate path: Directly introduces the possibility of a rate hike, a significant shift in guidance.

The labour market has evolved broadly as expected and remains a bit tight.
labour market: No surprise but tightness reinforces that the economy may not need stimulus.

17 March 2026

Today as you know, the Board decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1 per cent.
rate path: Immediate policy action: 25bp hike to 4.1%.

Taken together, the data suggests there is slightly more excess demand in the economy than we thought in February, and inflationary pressures are therefore somewhat greater.
inflation: Upward revision to inflation assessment; domestic demand pressures persist.

The Board concluded that the cash rate was not at a level consistent with returning inflation to target within a reasonable time frame.
rate path: Implies rates need to rise further; current level insufficient.

The Board will continue to be guided by incoming data and what it tells us about the economy and the outlook.
rate path: Reiterates data-dependent approach; no explicit commitment to further hikes.

If circumstances change, and if it does look like the world economy is in big trouble, then that will have different implications for inflation and we will be looking very hard at what we need to do in those circumstances.
rate path: Conditional easing bias if global recession materialises.

we’re not seeing it show up in the unemployment rate, the underemployment rate and we’re not seeing it show up in things like the forward-looking indicators like vacancies, job openings, layoffs
labour market: Labour market remains tight despite doomsday predictions; no evidence of softening to ease inflation pressures.

Official documents

Background reading

9 December 2025 statement · 17 March 2026 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology