Reserve Bank of Australia Statement comparison — 3 February 2026 vs 17 March 2026
This Reserve Bank of Australia statement comparison covers 3 February 2026 and 17 March 2026. Overall, the newer document was mixed. The current document delivers another 25bp hike, maintaining the tightening cycle, but for the first time introduces conditional easing language and highlights internal board disagreement and uncertainty, signaling a potential pause or slower pace going forward. The overall direction remains hawkish but with a more cautious, data-dependent tone than the prior meeting.
What changed
Mixed. The current document delivers another 25bp hike, maintaining the tightening cycle, but for the first time introduces conditional easing language and highlights internal board disagreement and uncertainty, signaling a potential pause or slower pace going forward. The overall direction remains hawkish but with a more cautious, data-dependent tone than the prior meeting.
- Inflation — More hawkish. Current document explicitly states inflation risks have tilted to the upside and acknowledges a resurgence, marking a further hawkish intensification relative to prior.
- Labour Market — Little changed. Labour market remains tight with no softening, consistent with prior assessment.
- Rate Path — More dovish. While the current document still delivers a hike, it introduces conditional easing language and emphasizes data dependence and uncertainty, representing a marginally less hawkish tone compared to the prior's uniformly hawkish bias.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet passages in either document, so no change.
Key wording
today as you know the Board decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85 per cent.
The recent run of data gives the Board a clear enough view that the underlying pulse of inflation is too strong.
conditions in the labour market have held up well and unemployment has remained lower than thought.
financial conditions have eased, and it is uncertain now whether they remain restrictive overall.
The two numbers that we’ve seen for September and December are two high quarterly numbers, this is underlying, 1 and 0.9. You can’t have those sorts of quarterly numbers if you’re going to be back in the band.
The Board has taken a cautious approach. They’ve made one rate rise this time, and we’ll observe now what happens to financial conditions.
Today as you know, the Board decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1 per cent.
Taken together, the data suggests there is slightly more excess demand in the economy than we thought in February, and inflationary pressures are therefore somewhat greater.
we’re not seeing it show up in the unemployment rate, the underemployment rate and we’re not seeing it show up in things like the forward-looking indicators like vacancies, job openings, layoffs
The Board concluded that the cash rate was not at a level consistent with returning inflation to target within a reasonable time frame.
This all suggests that the risks to inflation have tilted to the upside.
The Board will continue to be guided by incoming data and what it tells us about the economy and the outlook.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
3 February 2026 statement · 17 March 2026 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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