Riksbank Statement comparison — 20 August 2025 vs 23 September 2025

This Riksbank statement comparison covers 20 August 2025 and 23 September 2025. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The Riksbank cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.75%, fulfilling the cut probability signaled in the prior document. However, forward guidance indicates a pause unless the outlook changes, suggesting a cautious approach to further easing.

What changed

More dovish. The Riksbank cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.75%, fulfilling the cut probability signaled in the prior document. However, forward guidance indicates a pause unless the outlook changes, suggesting a cautious approach to further easing.

Inflation — Little changed. Both documents describe inflation as above target but driven by temporary factors, with core moderating in the current period.
Labour Market — Little changed. Labour market weakness persists in both documents; the current language emphasizes a delayed turnaround but no material change in assessment.
Rate Path — More dovish. The prior document left rates unchanged with a probability of a cut later; the current document delivers the cut to 1.75%, signaling an easing action.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. Mixed risk signals: the majority sees reduced inflation concern, but the dissent highlights upside risks, resulting in a balanced overall risk assessment.

Key wording

20 August 2025

Inflation has risen more than expected over the summer, and is somewhat above the target. However, the upturn is assessed to be due to temporary factors.
inflation: Inflation above target but dismissed as temporary, reducing urgency to hike.

At the same time, economic activity remains weak.
labour market: Weak activity supports case for further easing.

The Executive Board has therefore decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 2 per cent, and still sees some probability of a further interest rate cut this year.
rate path: Rate hold but explicit probability of cut later this year.

Households are still cautious with regard to their spending, and the labour market is not yet showing any clear sign of improving.
labour market: Labor market weakness reinforces dovish bias.

There are favourable conditions for stronger economic activity going forward, partly due to the Riksbank's interest rate cuts and to rising real wages for households. But the recovery is sluggish. At the same time, the unexpectedly high inflation calls for vigilance.
rate path: Acknowledges upside risks to growth but warns inflation requires caution – a balanced tone.

There is thus still some probability of a further interest rate cut this year, in line with the June forecast.
rate path: Reiterates possibility of cut, maintaining dovish forward guidance.

23 September 2025

In Sweden, inflation remained elevated in August, but excluding energy, inflation decreased somewhat and approached the forecast in June.
inflation: Headline inflation still high but core is moderating.

The turnaround on the labour market also looks set to take longer than expected.
labour market: Weak labour market supports further easing.

The Riksbank sets the policy rate at 1.75 per cent, which means that it is cut by 0.25 percentage points.
rate path: Confirms the rate cut to 1.75%.

If the outlook for inflation and economic activity holds, the policy rate is expected to remain at 1.75 per cent for some time to come.
rate path: Signals a pause; no further cuts unless outlook changes.

New information has given further confidence in the assessment that the high inflation is temporary.
rate path: Reduces concern about persistent inflation.

She argued that a vulnerable supply side, combined with an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, implies that inflation could surprise on the upside.
rate path: Highlights upside inflation risk from fiscal policy.

Official documents

Background reading

20 August 2025 statement · 23 September 2025 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Next comparison · Methodology