Riksbank Statement comparison — 20 August 2025 vs 5 November 2025
This Riksbank statement comparison covers 20 August 2025 and 5 November 2025. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The Riksbank delivered a rate cut between meetings and now holds steady, with inflation tracking forecasts and labour market showing nascent improvement. The forward guidance has shifted from explicit easing bias to a neutral hold, suggesting further cuts are not imminent unless data weakens significantly.
What changed
More hawkish. The Riksbank delivered a rate cut between meetings and now holds steady, with inflation tracking forecasts and labour market showing nascent improvement. The forward guidance has shifted from explicit easing bias to a neutral hold, suggesting further cuts are not imminent unless data weakens significantly.
- Inflation — Little changed. Inflation still above target but track record reinforces transitory view; no material change in assessment.
- Labour Market — Little changed. Labour market remains weak but now some signs of turnaround, a slight improvement from prior's 'no clear sign'; stance unchanged.
- Rate Path — More hawkish. Prior explicitly flagged probability of further cuts; now rates have been cut and the Board signals they will remain at 1.75% for some time, a hawkish shift in forward guidance.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Risk picture unchanged from prior; no new signals on balance sheet.
Key wording
Inflation has risen more than expected over the summer, and is somewhat above the target. However, the upturn is assessed to be due to temporary factors.
At the same time, economic activity remains weak.
The Executive Board has therefore decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 2 per cent, and still sees some probability of a further interest rate cut this year.
Households are still cautious with regard to their spending, and the labour market is not yet showing any clear sign of improving.
There are favourable conditions for stronger economic activity going forward, partly due to the Riksbank's interest rate cuts and to rising real wages for households. But the recovery is sluggish. At the same time, the unexpectedly high inflation calls for vigilance.
There is thus still some probability of a further interest rate cut this year, in line with the June forecast.
Although inflation is still above the target, it has fallen in line with the forecast in September. This reinforces the assessment that the elevated inflation is transitory.
the labour market is still showing weak development, although there are now some signs that a turnaround is on its way.
the Executive Board has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent.
The policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come.
Thus, the Executive Board is following the previously communicated plan for monetary policy and has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent. The policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come, in line with the forecast in September.
The overall risk picture is not assessed to have shifted to any significant extent since September, but the Riksbank is still vigilant regarding developments.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
20 August 2025 statement · 5 November 2025 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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