Riksbank Statement comparison — 23 September 2025 vs 5 November 2025
This Riksbank statement comparison covers 23 September 2025 and 5 November 2025. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The current document holds rates steady after a cut, with inflation viewed as transitory and labour market showing early improvement signs, representing a moderately hawkish shift as the easing cycle pauses. The next decision hinges on whether inflation continues to track forecasts and labour market conditions firm further.
What changed
More hawkish. The current document holds rates steady after a cut, with inflation viewed as transitory and labour market showing early improvement signs, representing a moderately hawkish shift as the easing cycle pauses. The next decision hinges on whether inflation continues to track forecasts and labour market conditions firm further.
- Inflation — More dovish. Inflation language shifted from merely elevated to falling in line with forecasts and deemed transitory, reducing the urgency to tighten.
- Labour Market — More hawkish. Labour market language softened from 'turnaround longer than expected' to 'weak but some signs of turnaround,' reducing the dovish signal from the prior meeting.
- Rate Path — More hawkish. Rate path shifted from a 25bp cut to a hold, with forward guidance unchanged on keeping rates steady, representing a hawkish action relative to the prior meeting.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Risk balance language moved from a mix of dovish confidence in transitory inflation and a hawkish dissent regarding fiscal risks to a neutral assessment that the risk picture is unchanged.
Key wording
The Riksbank sets the policy rate at 1.75 per cent, which means that it is cut by 0.25 percentage points.
If the outlook for inflation and economic activity holds, the policy rate is expected to remain at 1.75 per cent for some time to come.
In Sweden, inflation remained elevated in August, but excluding energy, inflation decreased somewhat and approached the forecast in June.
The turnaround on the labour market also looks set to take longer than expected.
New information has given further confidence in the assessment that the high inflation is temporary.
She argued that a vulnerable supply side, combined with an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, implies that inflation could surprise on the upside.
the Executive Board has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent.
The policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come.
Although inflation is still above the target, it has fallen in line with the forecast in September. This reinforces the assessment that the elevated inflation is transitory.
the labour market is still showing weak development, although there are now some signs that a turnaround is on its way.
Thus, the Executive Board is following the previously communicated plan for monetary policy and has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent. The policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come, in line with the forecast in September.
The overall risk picture is not assessed to have shifted to any significant extent since September, but the Riksbank is still vigilant regarding developments.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
23 September 2025 statement · 5 November 2025 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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