Riksbank Statement comparison — 23 September 2025 vs 18 December 2025

This Riksbank statement comparison covers 23 September 2025 and 18 December 2025. Overall, the newer document was mixed. The Riksbank has paused its easing cycle after a prior cut, with upgraded growth and inflation on track, suggesting rates will remain on hold unless the outlook changes materially. The next decision likely hinges on incoming data, with a bias toward maintaining the current rate.

What changed

Mixed. The Riksbank has paused its easing cycle after a prior cut, with upgraded growth and inflation on track, suggesting rates will remain on hold unless the outlook changes materially. The next decision likely hinges on incoming data, with a bias toward maintaining the current rate.

Inflation — More dovish. Prior described inflation as still elevated and core moderating, while current states inflation is in line with forecast and approaching 2%, indicating reduced inflation concern.
Labour Market — Little changed. Both documents highlight a weak labour market, but current adds signs of improvement, making the overall assessment slightly less dovish relative to prior.
Rate Path — More hawkish. Prior cut rates and had dovish risk balance; current holds rates and upgrades growth outlook, signaling a reduced probability of further easing.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. Prior had no explicit balance sheet passage; current introduces acknowledgement of uncertainty and readiness to adjust, which is not a directional shift.

Key wording

23 September 2025

The Riksbank sets the policy rate at 1.75 per cent, which means that it is cut by 0.25 percentage points.
rate path: Confirms the rate cut to 1.75%.

If the outlook for inflation and economic activity holds, the policy rate is expected to remain at 1.75 per cent for some time to come.
rate path: Signals a pause; no further cuts unless outlook changes.

In Sweden, inflation remained elevated in August, but excluding energy, inflation decreased somewhat and approached the forecast in June.
inflation: Headline inflation still high but core is moderating.

The turnaround on the labour market also looks set to take longer than expected.
labour market: Weak labour market supports further easing.

New information has given further confidence in the assessment that the high inflation is temporary.
rate path: Reduces concern about persistent inflation.

She argued that a vulnerable supply side, combined with an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, implies that inflation could surprise on the upside.
rate path: Highlights upside inflation risk from fiscal policy.

18 December 2025

Policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent
rate path: Rate decision itself - no change.

The Executive Board of the Riksbank has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent and the rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come.
rate path: Explicit forward guidance that rates will stay put for now.

Although inflation has varied somewhat from month to month, it has overall developed in line with the Riksbank's forecast in September and approached 2 per cent.
inflation: Inflation on track, no surprise.

The situation in the labour market remains weak, but there are increasingly clear signs that it is beginning to improve.
labour market: Labour market still soft but turning - supports gradual recovery narrative.

Compared with the forecast in September, growth has been higher and economic activity is assessed to be stronger.
rate path: Upward revision to growth, reduces need for further easing.

Overall, the economic outlook appears slightly better, while the inflation outlook is assessed to remain the same.
rate path: Slight upgrade to growth but inflation unchanged, keeps policy steady.

Official documents

Background reading

23 September 2025 statement · 18 December 2025 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology