What changed in the Riksbank statement — 18 December 2025

Riksbank held policy at 1.75%. The Riksbank holds rates steady with largely unchanged forward guidance, but the inflation tone shifts from explicitly transitory to on-track (less dovish) while labour market weakness is now explicitly noted (dovish). The net effect is a balanced stance, with the next decision likely to maintain the current rate barring significantly stronger or weaker data.

Decision

Decision: hold
Repo rate: 1.75%

Going into the decision

On the day, the committee read as dovish — -1.6 on a scale where +3 means every member wants higher rates and −3 means every member wants cuts.

Reconstructed from official member remarks published before the decision date. 3 of 5 active members had stored official remarks.

What changed

The Riksbank holds rates steady with largely unchanged forward guidance, but the inflation tone shifts from explicitly transitory to on-track (less dovish) while labour market weakness is now explicitly noted (dovish). The net effect is a balanced stance, with the next decision likely to maintain the current rate barring significantly stronger or weaker data.

Inflation — More hawkish. Shift from explicit transitory/downplaying upside surprise to neutral assessment that inflation is on track towards target, reducing dovish bias.
Labour Market — More dovish. New passage acknowledges labour market weakness with signs of improvement, introducing a dovish element.
Rate Path — Little changed. Forward guidance unchanged, still expecting rates to remain at current level for some time, no material shift in stance.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. New passage notes uncertainty and readiness to adjust, neutral with no directional tilt.

Previous wording

the Executive Board has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent.
rate path: Key decision: no change, in line with expectations.

The policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come.
rate path: Signals no near-term hike, reinforcing a steady stance.

Although inflation is still above the target, it has fallen in line with the forecast in September. This reinforces the assessment that the elevated inflation is transitory.
inflation: Inflation tracking forecasts and seen as transitory reduces urgency to tighten.

the labour market is still showing weak development, although there are now some signs that a turnaround is on its way.
labour market: Weakness persists but improvement expected, no strong signal for policy.

Thus, the Executive Board is following the previously communicated plan for monetary policy and has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent. The policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come, in line with the forecast in September.
rate path: Reiteration of previous guidance; no deviation from plan.

The overall risk picture is not assessed to have shifted to any significant extent since September, but the Riksbank is still vigilant regarding developments.
balance sheet: Risks unchanged, vigilance continues; no new threats to alter path.

Current wording

Policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent
rate path: Rate decision itself - no change.

The Executive Board of the Riksbank has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent and the rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come.
rate path: Explicit forward guidance that rates will stay put for now.

Although inflation has varied somewhat from month to month, it has overall developed in line with the Riksbank's forecast in September and approached 2 per cent.
inflation: Inflation on track, no surprise.

The situation in the labour market remains weak, but there are increasingly clear signs that it is beginning to improve.
labour market: Labour market still soft but turning - supports gradual recovery narrative.

Compared with the forecast in September, growth has been higher and economic activity is assessed to be stronger.
rate path: Upward revision to growth, reduces need for further easing.

But the outlook for inflation and economic activity is uncertain. There are risks both abroad and in Sweden... The Riksbank is monitoring developments closely and is prepared to adjust monetary policy if the outlook changes.
balance sheet: Explicit acknowledgement of uncertainty and readiness to act - keeps optionality.

Official statement

Policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent

Press release The prospects for the Swedish economy are looking brighter. Although it will take time before economic activity returns to normal, the recovery is under way. At the same time, inflation has approached 2 per cent. The Executive Board of the Riksbank has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent and the rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come.

Although inflation has varied somewhat from month to month, it has overall developed in line with the Riksbank's forecast in September and approached 2 per cent. Indicators continue to support the view of inflationary pressures in line with the target going forward.

Compared with the forecast in September, growth has been higher and economic activity is assessed to be stronger. The situation in the labour market remains weak, but there are increasingly clear signs that it is beginning to improve. All in all, this development gives the Executive Board further reassurance that the economic recovery is under way, even if it will take time before economic activity returns to normal.

Overall, the economic outlook appears slightly better, while the inflation outlook is assessed to remain the same. The Executive Board assesses that a policy rate at the current level helps to strengthen domestic demand and thus also economic activity. This, in turn, provides the conditions for inflation to stabilise close to the target in the medium term.

The Executive Board has therefore decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent. If the outlook for inflation and economic activity holds, the policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come.

But the outlook for inflation and economic activity is uncertain. There are risks both abroad and in Sweden that could affect both inflation and economic activity going forward. The risk picture abroad is still marked by geopolitical conflicts, uncertainty regarding US foreign and trade policy, high asset valuations in financial markets and weak public finances in several countries. In Sweden, there is also uncertainty around households’ consumption behaviour and the effects that next year’s more expansionary fiscal policy will have. The Riksbank is monitoring developments closely and is prepared to adjust monetary policy if the outlook changes.

* Annual percentage change, annual and quarterly averages Note. The assessment in the September 2025 Monetary Policy Report is shown in brackets. ** Calendar-adjusted GDP growth and seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment in 2028 Q4. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

* Per cent, quarterly averages Note. The assessment in the September 2025 Monetary Policy Report is shown in brackets. Source: The Riksbank

The decision on the policy rate will apply from 7 January 2026. The minutes from the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting will be published on 30 December 2025. A press conference with Governor Erik Thedéen, and Åsa Olli Segendorf, Head of the Monetary Policy Department, will be held today at 11.00 at the Riksbank. Press cards or the equivalent are required to participate. Advance registration is required, to press officer Susanne Meyer, susanne.meyer@riksbank.se no later than 10.00 on 18 December 2025. The press conference will be broadcast live on riksbank.se.

Documents

Press release: Policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent (pdf | 197,9 kB)

Monetary Policy Report December 2025 (pdf | 5,3 MB)

Monetary policy decision December 2025: Policy rate decision (pdf | 197,9 kB)

Numerical data: Monetary Policy Report December 2025 (xlsx | 907,1 kB)

Outcomes and forecasts, December 2025 (xlsx | 1,1 MB)

Background reading

Cadence's comparison is generated from the official documents. Read the methodology.