What changed in the Riksbank statement — 5 November 2025

Riksbank held policy at 1.75%. The current document holds rates steady after a cut, with inflation viewed as transitory and labour market showing early improvement signs, representing a moderately hawkish shift as the easing cycle pauses. The next decision hinges on whether inflation continues to track forecasts and labour market conditions firm further.

Decision

Decision: hold
Repo rate: 1.75%

Going into the decision

On the day, the committee read as dovish — -1.6 on a scale where +3 means every member wants higher rates and −3 means every member wants cuts.

Reconstructed from official member remarks published before the decision date. 3 of 5 active members had stored official remarks.

What changed

The current document holds rates steady after a cut, with inflation viewed as transitory and labour market showing early improvement signs, representing a moderately hawkish shift as the easing cycle pauses. The next decision hinges on whether inflation continues to track forecasts and labour market conditions firm further.

Inflation — More dovish. Inflation language shifted from merely elevated to falling in line with forecasts and deemed transitory, reducing the urgency to tighten.
Labour Market — More hawkish. Labour market language softened from 'turnaround longer than expected' to 'weak but some signs of turnaround,' reducing the dovish signal from the prior meeting.
Rate Path — More hawkish. Rate path shifted from a 25bp cut to a hold, with forward guidance unchanged on keeping rates steady, representing a hawkish action relative to the prior meeting.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. Risk balance language moved from a mix of dovish confidence in transitory inflation and a hawkish dissent regarding fiscal risks to a neutral assessment that the risk picture is unchanged.

Previous wording

The Riksbank sets the policy rate at 1.75 per cent, which means that it is cut by 0.25 percentage points.
rate path: Confirms the rate cut to 1.75%.

If the outlook for inflation and economic activity holds, the policy rate is expected to remain at 1.75 per cent for some time to come.
rate path: Signals a pause; no further cuts unless outlook changes.

In Sweden, inflation remained elevated in August, but excluding energy, inflation decreased somewhat and approached the forecast in June.
inflation: Headline inflation still high but core is moderating.

The turnaround on the labour market also looks set to take longer than expected.
labour market: Weak labour market supports further easing.

New information has given further confidence in the assessment that the high inflation is temporary.
rate path: Reduces concern about persistent inflation.

She argued that a vulnerable supply side, combined with an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, implies that inflation could surprise on the upside.
rate path: Highlights upside inflation risk from fiscal policy.

Current wording

the Executive Board has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent.
rate path: Key decision: no change, in line with expectations.

The policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come.
rate path: Signals no near-term hike, reinforcing a steady stance.

Although inflation is still above the target, it has fallen in line with the forecast in September. This reinforces the assessment that the elevated inflation is transitory.
inflation: Inflation tracking forecasts and seen as transitory reduces urgency to tighten.

the labour market is still showing weak development, although there are now some signs that a turnaround is on its way.
labour market: Weakness persists but improvement expected, no strong signal for policy.

Thus, the Executive Board is following the previously communicated plan for monetary policy and has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent. The policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come, in line with the forecast in September.
rate path: Reiteration of previous guidance; no deviation from plan.

The overall risk picture is not assessed to have shifted to any significant extent since September, but the Riksbank is still vigilant regarding developments.
balance sheet: Risks unchanged, vigilance continues; no new threats to alter path.

Official statement

Policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent

Press release The elevated inflation has begun to fall back, at the same time as economic activity is on its way to recovery. The outlook for inflation and economic activity thus remains largely unchanged and the Executive Board has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent. The policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come.

Although inflation is still above the target, it has fallen in line with the forecast in September. This reinforces the assessment that the elevated inflation is transitory. New information also supports the Riksbank's forecast that the economy is on its way to recovery. Growth was somewhat stronger than expected during the third quarter, according to preliminary statistics. At the same time, the labour market is still showing weak development, although there are now some signs that a turnaround is on its way. Overall, the outlook for inflation and economic activity remains largely unchanged.

Thus, the Executive Board is following the previously communicated plan for monetary policy and has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent. The policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come, in line with the forecast in September. This is assessed to help strengthen economic activity and stabilise inflation close to the target in the medium term.

At the same time, the outlook for inflation and economic activity is uncertain. There are risks both in Sweden and abroad that could affect economic developments and thereby also the policy rate going forward. One uncertainty factor concerns household consumption behaviour and how the more expansionary fiscal policy will affect economic activity and inflation. The risk picture abroad is still marked by geopolitical conflicts, uncertainty regarding trade policy, high asset valuations on financial markets and weak public finances in several countries. The overall risk picture is not assessed to have shifted to any significant extent since September, but the Riksbank is still vigilant regarding developments.

The decision on the policy rate will apply from 12 November 2025. The minutes from the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting will be published on 11 November 2025. A press conference with Governor Erik Thedéen, and Åsa Olli Segendorf, Head of the Monetary Policy Department, will be held today at 11.00 at the Riksbank. Press cards or the equivalent are required to participate. Advance registration is required, to press officer Susanne Meyer, susanne.meyer@riksbank.se no later than 10.00 on 5 November 2025. The press conference will be broadcast live on riksbank.se.

About the Monetary Policy Update

A Monetary Policy Update is published in connection with the policy rate decision, containing the Executive Board's assessment of how new information affects economic prospects and monetary policy. The update does not contain any new forecasts. The next Monetary Policy Report containing forecasts will be published on 18 December 2025.

Documents

Press release: Policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent (pdf | 167,7 kB)

Monetary Policy Update November 2025 (pdf | 1,3 MB)

Monetary Policy Decision November 2025: Policy rate decision (pdf | 248,8 kB)

Numerical data: Monetary Policy Update November 2025 (xlsx | 222,6 kB)

Background reading

Cadence's comparison is generated from the official documents. Read the methodology.