Riksbank Statement comparison — 5 November 2025 vs 18 December 2025

This Riksbank statement comparison covers 5 November 2025 and 18 December 2025. Overall, the newer document was mixed. The Riksbank holds rates steady with largely unchanged forward guidance, but the inflation tone shifts from explicitly transitory to on-track (less dovish) while labour market weakness is now explicitly noted (dovish). The net effect is a balanced stance, with the next decision likely to maintain the current rate barring significantly stronger or weaker data.

What changed

Mixed. The Riksbank holds rates steady with largely unchanged forward guidance, but the inflation tone shifts from explicitly transitory to on-track (less dovish) while labour market weakness is now explicitly noted (dovish). The net effect is a balanced stance, with the next decision likely to maintain the current rate barring significantly stronger or weaker data.

Inflation — More hawkish. Shift from explicit transitory/downplaying upside surprise to neutral assessment that inflation is on track towards target, reducing dovish bias.
Labour Market — More dovish. New passage acknowledges labour market weakness with signs of improvement, introducing a dovish element.
Rate Path — Little changed. Forward guidance unchanged, still expecting rates to remain at current level for some time, no material shift in stance.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. New passage notes uncertainty and readiness to adjust, neutral with no directional tilt.

Key wording

5 November 2025

The Executive Board's monetary policy decision to leave the interest rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent.
rate path: Rate decision itself: no change, market expected status quo.

We are expecting the policy rate to remain at this level for some time to come.
rate path: Explicit guidance that rates will stay steady, pushing back against any imminent cut expectations.

Our assessment is that it will help strengthen economic activity and stabilise inflation close to the target in the medium term.
rate path: Conditional confidence that current policy works; no urgency to adjust.

However, the outlook for economic activity and inflation is uncertain and we are still vigilant regarding developments.
rate path: Standard cautious language, but vigilance suggests readiness to act if needed.

Our assessment is that the elevated inflation this year is transitory.
inflation: Reinforces transitory view, reducing pressure to tighten further.

I would say this still applies even though the flash CPI was a bit higher than expected.
inflation: Downplays upside surprise, sticking to transitory narrative – markets may take as less hawkish.

18 December 2025

Policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent
rate path: Rate decision itself - no change.

The Executive Board of the Riksbank has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent and the rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come.
rate path: Explicit forward guidance that rates will stay put for now.

Compared with the forecast in September, growth has been higher and economic activity is assessed to be stronger.
rate path: Upward revision to growth, reduces need for further easing.

Overall, the economic outlook appears slightly better, while the inflation outlook is assessed to remain the same.
rate path: Slight upgrade to growth but inflation unchanged, keeps policy steady.

Although inflation has varied somewhat from month to month, it has overall developed in line with the Riksbank's forecast in September and approached 2 per cent.
inflation: Inflation on track, no surprise.

If the outlook for inflation and economic activity holds, the policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come.
rate path: Conditional guidance: hold as long as outlook holds.

Official documents

Background reading

5 November 2025 statement · 18 December 2025 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology