Riksbank Statement comparison — 18 December 2025 vs 28 January 2026
This Riksbank statement comparison covers 18 December 2025 and 28 January 2026. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The overall tone has shifted slightly dovish relative to December, driven by softer-than-expected inflation and heightened uncertainty, but the rate path remains firmly on hold. This suggests the Riksbank is in wait-and-see mode, with a growing bias to ease if downside risks materialize, but no imminent action.
What changed
More dovish. The overall tone has shifted slightly dovish relative to December, driven by softer-than-expected inflation and heightened uncertainty, but the rate path remains firmly on hold. This suggests the Riksbank is in wait-and-see mode, with a growing bias to ease if downside risks materialize, but no imminent action.
- Inflation — More dovish. Inflation now described as 'lower than expected' and 'close to target' vs prior 'in line with forecast' — a clear softening of inflation assessment.
- Labour Market — Little changed. Labour market language nearly identical: both highlight weak conditions with signs of improvement; no material directional shift.
- Rate Path — Little changed. Rate unchanged and forward guidance unchanged — both documents stress rates will stay at 1.75% for some time with conditional data-dependence.
- Balance Sheet — More dovish. Current statement explicitly states 'uncertainty has increased' and flags multiple downside risks (US trade, geopolitics, FX, fiscal) — a more cautious risk assessment than prior's general 'uncertain' language.
Key wording
Policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent
The Executive Board of the Riksbank has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent and the rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come.
Although inflation has varied somewhat from month to month, it has overall developed in line with the Riksbank's forecast in September and approached 2 per cent.
Compared with the forecast in September, growth has been higher and economic activity is assessed to be stronger.
The situation in the labour market remains weak, but there are increasingly clear signs that it is beginning to improve.
Overall, the economic outlook appears slightly better, while the inflation outlook is assessed to remain the same.
The Executive Board of the Riksbank has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent and the rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come, in line with the Riksbank’s forecast in December.
The policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come, in line with the Riksbank’s forecast in December.
Inflation was lower than expected in December, and is now close to the target of 2 per cent.
However, the uncertainty regarding the outlook for inflation and economic activity has increased.
The labour market situation remains weak, but there are increasingly clear signs of improvement.
Recent developments, for instance in relation to US trade and foreign policy, have widened the range of potential outcomes for what can happen going forward.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
18 December 2025 statement · 28 January 2026 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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