Riksbank Statement comparison — 17 June 2026 vs 20 August 2026
This Riksbank statement comparison covers 17 June 2026 and 20 August 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The June document saw low inflation and an increased probability of a future hike; the August document marks up the inflation assessment (and growth) but holds the policy rate and keeps the hike probability unchanged rather than raising it further. With labour market weakness and underlying inflation near target, the next decision is likely to remain a hold unless the upside inflation surprise persists.
What changed
More hawkish. The June document saw low inflation and an increased probability of a future hike; the August document marks up the inflation assessment (and growth) but holds the policy rate and keeps the hike probability unchanged rather than raising it further. With labour market weakness and underlying inflation near target, the next decision is likely to remain a hold unless the upside inflation surprise persists.
- Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation assessment shifted from 'low' to 'higher than forecast' with a renewed risk of underlying inflation running too high, though falling commodity prices and underlying near 2% provide offsetting dovish notes.
- Labour Market — Little changed. Labour market is described as weaker than normal in June and weaker than expected in August — no material shift in the assessment.
- Rate Path — Little changed. Prior flagged an increased probability of a hike; current maintains that probability ('remains') and adds explicit conditionality, but no further escalation — the hold is maintained with an unchanged, not increased, tightening bias.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance sheet or asset purchase language appears in either signal set — no change in balance sheet stance.
Key wording
Inflation in Sweden is low
economic activity is somewhat weaker than normal
the supply disruptions linked to the war in the Middle East have led to inflationary pressures rising and the risks of inflation becoming too high have increased.
The Executive Board assesses that it is well-balanced to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent now
the probability that the rate will be raised later this year has increased in relation to the assessment in March.
During the summer, both growth and inflation have been higher than was forecast in June, and there is still a risk of underlying inflation becoming too high in the wake of the supply shocks in the Middle East.
However, the picture is not clear-cut; for instance, companies’ pricing plans have been subdued, disruptions in global supply chains have declined and the labour market has been somewhat weaker than expected.
The Riksbank has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent and assesses that the probability of a rate increase later this year remains.
If the unexpectedly high inflation during the summer were to be the start of a larger and more lasting upturn in inflation, the Riksbank would adjust its monetary policy in a tighter direction.
At the same time, there is considerable uncertainty and developments call for vigilance.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
17 June 2026 statement · 20 August 2026 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Methodology
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