Swiss National Bank Minutes comparison — 25 September 2025 vs 11 December 2025
This Swiss National Bank minutes comparison covers 25 September 2025 and 11 December 2025. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The SNB has shifted from a dovish-leaning tone (citing tariff risks and weak inflation) to a distinctly neutral hold, explicitly stating that neither tightening nor easing is appropriate. This reflects an improved global outlook and stable inflation forecasts, signalling that the policy rate is likely to remain at 0% for an extended period unless data alter the picture.
What changed
More hawkish. The SNB has shifted from a dovish-leaning tone (citing tariff risks and weak inflation) to a distinctly neutral hold, explicitly stating that neither tightening nor easing is appropriate. This reflects an improved global outlook and stable inflation forecasts, signalling that the policy rate is likely to remain at 0% for an extended period unless data alter the picture.
- Inflation — Little changed. Inflation assessment remains anchored within the price-stability range; the prior dovish note on US easing is replaced by a neutral outlook expecting a temporary decline then rebound, so no directional shift.
- Labour Market — Little changed. No explicit labour-market passages appear in either document, so no directional signal is available.
- Rate Path — More hawkish. Prior passages carried a dovish tilt citing tariff-driven deterioration and weak inflationary pressure; current explicitly rules out both tightening and easing, reflecting a less uncertain outlook — a hawkish shift relative to the prior easing bias.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. The prior flag on franc appreciation risk from safe-haven inflows is countered by a current assessment that excess liquidity is consistent with price stability, while FX intervention willingness is reaffirmed — no material change in balance-sheet stance.
Key wording
the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%.
Geopolitical shocks could lead to money flowing into currency areas regarded as safe havens by investors. This could result in an appreciation of the Swiss franc. This risk is currently being countered somewhat by the relatively high interest rate differential with other countries.
taking all available indicators into account, monetary policy is currently continuing to have a stimulative effect.
Inflation had risen in the US in recent months, but monetary policy there was eased somewhat nonetheless due to increasing downside risks to employment.
However, these positive tendencies were being overshadowed by the newly announced US tariffs. Correspondingly, the business outlook deteriorated.
All available information points to inflation remaining within the range consistent with price stability. At present, inflation in Switzerland is not expected to become persistently negative.
At the monetary policy assessment of 9 and 10 December 2025, the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%.
The excess liquidity is positive and consistent with price stability in the medium term.
Taking into account all available indicators, the effect of monetary policy is expansionary.
Having declined somewhat in recent months, inflation is likely to increase again over the course of the forecast period, thus remaining within the range consistent with price stability. Uncertainty about the future development of inflation remains elevated.
The global economic outlook is less uncertain than in September. Nevertheless, there are still significant risks.
In the medium term, the conditional inflation forecast is virtually unchanged compared to September. Inflation is within the range of price stability over the entire forecast horizon.
Official documents
Background reading
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