Swiss National Bank Minutes comparison — 25 September 2025 vs 19 March 2026
This Swiss National Bank minutes comparison covers 25 September 2025 and 19 March 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The current document marks a hawkish shift on inflation and balance sheet due to new energy price surge and appreciation tightening, while rate_path remains on hold but with added hawkish risks. The next decision is likely to maintain the 0% rate, with a possible increased willingness to intervene in FX markets and a cautious eye on inflation.
What changed
More hawkish. The current document marks a hawkish shift on inflation and balance sheet due to new energy price surge and appreciation tightening, while rate_path remains on hold but with added hawkish risks. The next decision is likely to maintain the 0% rate, with a possible increased willingness to intervene in FX markets and a cautious eye on inflation.
- Inflation — More hawkish. New mention of energy price surge driving global inflation expectations signals a hawkish tilt versus prior document's focus on stable inflation and US easing.
- Labour Market — Little changed. No labour market passages in either document; no shift.
- Rate Path — More hawkish. Prior document emphasised weak inflation and growth deterioration supporting expansionary stance; current document introduces upside inflation risk from energy prices, a hawkish addition despite retained expansionary characterisation.
- Balance Sheet — More hawkish. Prior noted franc appreciation risk being countered; current explicitly acknowledges tighter monetary conditions from appreciation and signals high intervention readiness, a hawkish shift.
Key wording
Geopolitical shocks could lead to money flowing into currency areas regarded as safe havens by investors. This could result in an appreciation of the Swiss franc. This risk is currently being countered somewhat by the relatively high interest rate differential with other countries.
taking all available indicators into account, monetary policy is currently continuing to have a stimulative effect.
Inflation had risen in the US in recent months, but monetary policy there was eased somewhat nonetheless due to increasing downside risks to employment.
However, these positive tendencies were being overshadowed by the newly announced US tariffs. Correspondingly, the business outlook deteriorated.
All available information points to inflation remaining within the range consistent with price stability. At present, inflation in Switzerland is not expected to become persistently negative.
In light of the weak inflationary pressure and the slight deterioration in the economic outlook, the SNB's expansionary monetary policy is contributing to a rise in inflation as per the conditional inflation forecast in the coming quarters, and is supporting economic growth.
In summary, the Governing Board noted that, owing to the appreciation of the Swiss franc, monetary cond
Monetary policy remains expansionary, however.
energy prices surged, which led to a global rise in inflation expectations.
Uncertainty surrounding the global economic outlook has increased significantly. For example, the war in the Middle East could lead to a further rise in energy prices. If this were to happen, inflation could increase more substantially than assumed in the baseline scenario, and global economic growth could decline more sharply.
Medium-term inflationary pressure is virtually unchanged compared with the last monetary policy assessment.
The Governing Board discussed the conditional inflation forecast, which assumes that the SNB policy rate remains unchanged at 0%.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
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