Swiss National Bank Minutes comparison — 11 December 2025 vs 19 March 2026
This Swiss National Bank minutes comparison covers 11 December 2025 and 19 March 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The SNB holds rates at 0% but the rhetorical balance shifts toward inflation risk and FX intervention, reflecting the energy price shock and franc strength. The next decision will hinge on whether inflation expectations stay elevated and whether the franc continues to appreciate.
What changed
More hawkish. The SNB holds rates at 0% but the rhetorical balance shifts toward inflation risk and FX intervention, reflecting the energy price shock and franc strength. The next decision will hinge on whether inflation expectations stay elevated and whether the franc continues to appreciate.
- Inflation — More hawkish. New language highlights energy price surge and rising inflation expectations, while medium-term pressure noted as unchanged — a hawkish tilt in the inflation risk assessment.
- Labour Market — Little changed. No labour market language appears in either set of key passages; no shift in employment framing.
- Rate Path — Little changed. The policy rate remains on hold at 0% with expansionary policy reaffirmed, but the current statement introduces upside inflation risks from energy prices and notes tighter financial conditions from franc appreciation, a mixed but ultimately neutral rate stance.
- Balance Sheet — More hawkish. The SNB reaffirms and intensifies its willingness to intervene in FX markets to counter rapid franc appreciation, a hawkish signal for balance-sheet policy, despite also noting policy remains expansionary.
Key wording
At the monetary policy assessment of 9 and 10 December 2025, the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%.
Taking into account all available indicators, the effect of monetary policy is expansionary.
The excess liquidity is positive and consistent with price stability in the medium term.
The global economic outlook is less uncertain than in September. Nevertheless, there are still significant risks.
Having declined somewhat in recent months, inflation is likely to increase again over the course of the forecast period, thus remaining within the range consistent with price stability. Uncertainty about the future development of inflation remains elevated.
In the medium term, the conditional inflation forecast is virtually unchanged compared to September. Inflation is within the range of price stability over the entire forecast horizon.
the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%.
Monetary policy remains expansionary, however.
In summary, the Governing Board noted that, owing to the appreciation of the Swiss franc, monetary cond
Uncertainty surrounding the global economic outlook has increased significantly. For example, the war in the Middle East could lead to a further rise in energy prices. If this were to happen, inflation could increase more substantially than assumed in the baseline scenario, and global economic growth could decline more sharply.
energy prices surged, which led to a global rise in inflation expectations.
Medium-term inflationary pressure is virtually unchanged compared with the last monetary policy assessment.
Official documents
Background reading
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