Swiss National Bank Minutes comparison — 19 March 2026 vs 18 June 2026
This Swiss National Bank minutes comparison covers 19 March 2026 and 18 June 2026. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The current document maintains the unchanged rate stance but introduces explicit concerns about labour market weakness and highlights upside inflation risks from second-round effects more prominently, signalling a cautious wait-and-see posture. The SNB is likely to hold rates unless labour market deterioration deepens or inflation expectations become unanchored.
What changed
More dovish. The current document maintains the unchanged rate stance but introduces explicit concerns about labour market weakness and highlights upside inflation risks from second-round effects more prominently, signalling a cautious wait-and-see posture. The SNB is likely to hold rates unless labour market deterioration deepens or inflation expectations become unanchored.
- Inflation — Little changed. Both documents acknowledge near-term energy-driven inflation pressures but maintain a benign medium-term outlook; current document adds global inflation rise but still expects inflation within target.
- Labour Market — More dovish. Current document introduces labour market weakness (subdued signals, rising unemployment) absent in prior, indicating a dovish shift.
- Rate Path — Little changed. Policy rate unchanged at 0% in both; forward guidance retains accommodative bias but current highlights upside inflation risks more prominently, balancing out.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Both documents signal readiness to intervene against franc strength; prior explicitly noted expansionary policy while current references consistent excess liquidity, resulting in a balanced tone.
Key wording
the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%.
energy prices surged, which led to a global rise in inflation expectations.
Monetary policy remains expansionary, however.
Uncertainty surrounding the global economic outlook has increased significantly. For example, the war in the Middle East could lead to a further rise in energy prices. If this were to happen, inflation could increase more substantially than assumed in the baseline scenario, and global economic growth could decline more sharply.
The Governing Board discussed the conditional inflation forecast, which assumes that the SNB policy rate remains unchanged at 0%.
Medium-term inflationary pressure is virtually unchanged compared with the last monetary policy assessment.
At the monetary policy assessment of 16 and 17 June 2026, the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%.
Inflation has risen noticeably in many countries.
Excess liquidity is still consistent with the objective of price stability in the medium term.
Despite framework agreements between the US and Iran, the situation in the Middle East is the most significant risk factor.
Inflation risks are currently to the upside due to possible second-round effects.
Assuming the SNB policy rate remains constant, inflation should rise somewhat further in the coming quarters.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Methodology
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