Swiss National Bank Press conference comparison — 19 March 2026 vs 24 September 2026

This Swiss National Bank press conference comparison covers 19 March 2026 and 24 September 2026. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The direction of travel is unchanged — a further hold at a 0% policy rate, the same data-dependent wording and the FX-intervention option kept in reserve — though the underlying tone tilts modestly softer, with the labour market now described as showing below-average capacity utilisation and a renewed rise in unemployment. That slack gives policymakers room to look through the latest energy-driven inflation bump, so the next decision is likely to stay on hold…

What changed

More dovish. The direction of travel is unchanged — a further hold at a 0% policy rate, the same data-dependent wording and the FX-intervention option kept in reserve — though the underlying tone tilts modestly softer, with the labour market now described as showing below-average capacity utilisation and a renewed rise in unemployment. That slack gives policymakers room to look through the latest energy-driven inflation bump, so the next decision is likely to stay on hold unless franc strength or inflation dynamics force a move.

Inflation — Little changed. The inflation assessment is little changed: higher energy prices again drive the near-term overshoot, while the medium-term characterisation edges from 'virtually unchanged' to 'increased only slightly' — too minor to shift a stance anchored by 0.7–0.8% forecasts that explicitly embed a 0% policy rate.
Labour Market — More dovish. The prior statement framed the labour market as merely stable (unemployment unchanged at the last assessment), whereas the current one introduces below-average capacity utilisation, especially in manufacturing, and a renewed rise in unemployment through early summer — an explicit slack signal that supports continued accommodation.
Rate Path — Little changed. The 0% policy rate is held again and the data-dependent 'monitor the situation and adjust if necessary' guidance is carried over essentially verbatim, with the forward-guidance element on foreign exchange intervention retained as a standing option rather than a new directional commitment.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. Readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market is preserved across both documents (prior: 'willingness has increased' amid Middle East conflict risk; current: 'as necessary'), so the FX/balance-sheet tool remains a standing buffer against franc strength rather than a fresh stance shift.

Key wording

19 March 2026

We have decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%.
rate path: Rate held at zero, no change.

Given the conflict in the Middle East, our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased.
rate path: Signals readiness to cap franc strength via intervention.

Our conditional inflation forecast for the coming quarters is higher than in December due to the rise in energy prices. Medium-term inflationary pressure, however, has remained virtually unchanged since the last monetary policy assessment.
inflation: Short-term inflation up on energy, but medium-term stable.

The global economic outlook is subject to significant risks, in particular owing to the situation in the Middle East. For instance, energy prices could rise more strongly than expected in the baseline scenario, which would considerably increase inflation and substantially constrain economic growth.
rate path: Highlights tail risks: higher inflation and lower growth from Middle East.

Unemployment stabilised and stood at the same level in February as at the time of the last monetary policy assessment.
labour market: Labour market stable, no new signals.

We will continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust our monetary policy if necessary, in order to ensure price stability over the medium term.
rate path: Standard conditional language, no strong bias.

24 September 2026

We have decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%. Banks' sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold.
rate path: Confirms no change in the 0% policy rate and unchanged deposit remuneration threshold; core policy decision.

We will therefore continue to monitor the situation and adjust our monetary policy if necessary, to ensure appropriate monetary conditions. We are also willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary.
rate path: Data-dependent guidance with FX intervention optionality; limits CHF strength without pre-committing to rate moves.

Inflation has risen further since June, primarily due to higher energy prices. Medium-term inflationary pressure has increased only slightly.
inflation: Energy-driven headline rise but only slight medium-term pressure, reducing urgency for a policy response.

our monetary policy if necessary, to ensure appropriate monetary conditions.
rate path: Only residual guidance in this section: keeps the door open to further adjustment of policy without committing to a direction, so it leaves the terminal-rate read data-dependent rather than locked.

At the same time, capacity utilisation was below average, especially in manufacturing, while unemployment rose again somewhat through to early summer.
labour market: Below-average capacity use and rising unemployment point to economic slack, supporting accommodative policy.

We are also willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary.
balance sheet: Explicit readiness to buy FX caps CHF appreciation, i.e. an easing of financial conditions delivered off the policy rate, which effectively tightens the bar for further cuts.

Official documents

Background reading

19 March 2026 press conference · 24 September 2026 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology