Swiss National Bank Press conference comparison — 19 March 2026 vs 24 September 2026

This Swiss National Bank press conference comparison covers 19 March 2026 and 24 September 2026. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The SNB has held its policy rate at 0% again and continues to treat the inflation uptick as an energy story rather than a broadening one, while flagging below-average capacity use and rising unemployment as reasons to avoid tightening. The overall direction of travel is unchanged-to-softer, with a weaker franc doing part of the easing work and FX intervention kept as the marginal lever, pointing to an extended hold and a bias toward easing…

What changed

More dovish. The SNB has held its policy rate at 0% again and continues to treat the inflation uptick as an energy story rather than a broadening one, while flagging below-average capacity use and rising unemployment as reasons to avoid tightening. The overall direction of travel is unchanged-to-softer, with a weaker franc doing part of the easing work and FX intervention kept as the marginal lever, pointing to an extended hold and a bias toward easing should labour data weaken further.

Inflation — Little changed. The inflation assessment is essentially carried over — prices are again described as pushed up primarily by energy, with medium-term pressure shifted only marginally from 'virtually unchanged' to 'increased only slightly', which is framed as non-broadening rather than as a tightening trigger.
Labour Market — More dovish. The labour market framing turns materially softer, moving from 'unemployment stabilised' at the prior assessment to below-average capacity utilisation, notably in manufacturing, and unemployment rising again through early summer — a clear argument against tightening.
Rate Path — Little changed. The decision remains an unchanged hold at 0% with the same conditional, data-dependent forward guidance, and the franc's roughly 3% trade-weighted depreciation is presented as the operative easing channel rather than any change to the rate path.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. Readiness to intervene in the FX market is retained but softened from the prior statement's explicit 'increased willingness' during franc strength to a standing 'as necessary' commitment now that the currency has depreciated — the tool remains available without a new signal of imminent use.

Key wording

19 March 2026

We have decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%.
rate path: Rate held at zero, no change.

Given the conflict in the Middle East, our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased.
rate path: Signals readiness to cap franc strength via intervention.

Our conditional inflation forecast for the coming quarters is higher than in December due to the rise in energy prices. Medium-term inflationary pressure, however, has remained virtually unchanged since the last monetary policy assessment.
inflation: Short-term inflation up on energy, but medium-term stable.

The global economic outlook is subject to significant risks, in particular owing to the situation in the Middle East. For instance, energy prices could rise more strongly than expected in the baseline scenario, which would considerably increase inflation and substantially constrain economic growth.
rate path: Highlights tail risks: higher inflation and lower growth from Middle East.

Unemployment stabilised and stood at the same level in February as at the time of the last monetary policy assessment.
labour market: Labour market stable, no new signals.

We will continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust our monetary policy if necessary, in order to ensure price stability over the medium term.
rate path: Standard conditional language, no strong bias.

24 September 2026

We have decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%. Banks' sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold.
rate path: Confirms a hold at zero with the tiering/discount structure unchanged — no imminent normalisation signal despite higher energy-driven inflation.

Since our last assessment, the Swiss franc has depreciated by around 3% on a trade-weighted basis. This depreciation was in line with the widening of interest rate differentials between the major currency areas and Switzerland.
rate path: Signals the SNB is comfortable with CHF weakness as a de facto easing channel, and flags FX intervention as the marginal policy tool rather than the rate.

Inflation has risen further since June, primarily due to higher energy prices. Medium-term inflationary pressure has increased only slightly.
inflation: Frames the inflation uptick as energy-driven rather than broadening, giving the SNB cover to stay at 0% rather than tighten.

Uncertainty about inflation and economic developments remains high, particularly regarding further developments in energy prices and their impact. We will therefore continue to monitor the situation and adjust our monetary policy if necessary, to ensure appropriate monetary conditions.
rate path: Data-dependent, non-committal guidance — optionality both ways, with no explicit easing or tightening bias to trade.

At the same time, capacity utilisation was below average, especially in manufacturing, while unemployment rose again somewhat through to early summer.
labour market: Slack in capacity and rising unemployment argue against any near-term tightening, keeping the policy bias skewed to hold/ease.

our monetary policy if necessary, to ensure appropriate monetary conditions.
rate path: Open-ended optionality with no direction or threshold given — confirms the SNB keeps full room to move but signals nothing new for the rate path, so it should not shift pricing.

Official documents

Background reading

19 March 2026 press conference · 24 September 2026 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology