Swiss National Bank Press conference comparison — 18 June 2026 vs 24 September 2026

This Swiss National Bank press conference comparison covers 18 June 2026 and 24 September 2026. Overall, the newer document was mixed. The September review is a holding exercise: the 0% policy rate, the flat rate assumption through the forecast horizon, and the openness to FX intervention all survive unchanged, so the overall direction of travel is steady rather than a pivot. The only genuine signal is tonal — unemployment and manufacturing slack are described in more detail while the explicitly escalated intervention rhetoric is dialled back — which leaves the next decision entirely data-dependent and tilts…

What changed

Mixed. The September review is a holding exercise: the 0% policy rate, the flat rate assumption through the forecast horizon, and the openness to FX intervention all survive unchanged, so the overall direction of travel is steady rather than a pivot. The only genuine signal is tonal — unemployment and manufacturing slack are described in more detail while the explicitly escalated intervention rhetoric is dialled back — which leaves the next decision entirely data-dependent and tilts any eventual move toward further accommodation rather than tightening.

Inflation — Little changed. Both statements frame the price rise as energy-driven, though the current one upgrades 'virtually unchanged' medium-term pressure to 'increased only slightly' — a marginal hardening that leaves the 0.7–0.8% forecast path and the 0% rate assumption intact.
Labour Market — More dovish. The softening labour picture is restated and broadened, with prior's 'unemployment has risen somewhat' now accompanied by below-average capacity utilisation, especially in manufacturing, reinforcing the case for staying accommodative.
Rate Path — Little changed. Unchanged: the policy rate is held at 0% with the same deposit-remuneration threshold, the forecast still embeds 0% across the horizon, and the data-dependent 'monitor and adjust if necessary' guidance is carried over verbatim.
Balance Sheet — More hawkish. The repeated 'increased willingness to intervene' escalation language of June is replaced by a generic standing offer to intervene 'as necessary', a modest de-emphasis of the FX-intervention channel even though the optionality is retained.

Key wording

18 June 2026

If necessary, we have an increased willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market. We thereby counter a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability in Switzerland.
balance sheet: Flags activated FX intervention to cap franc strength — a balance-sheet tool doing the easing work the policy rate cannot, relevant for CHF carry.

Inflation has risen in recent months as a result of higher energy prices. Medium-term inflationary pressure, however, is virtually unchanged compared with the last monetary policy assessment.
inflation: Frames the inflation uptick as energy-driven and transient, justifying holding rates despite headline rising from 0.1% to 0.6%.

Our forecast is based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0% over the entire forecast horizon.
rate path: Explicitly conditions the inflation path on a flat 0% policy rate through 2028, signalling no hike is baked in even as inflation drifts up.

Despite this positive development overall, unemployment has risen somewhat since the last monetary policy assessment.
labour market: A softening labour market alongside solid GDP supports the case for keeping policy expansionary rather than tightening.

We therefore increased our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market at the beginning of March.
balance sheet: Confirms stepped-up FX intervention to cap franc strength, effectively easing financial conditions.

Interest rates in the major currency areas have since risen, in part because markets expect monetary policy tightening there due to the higher inflation. As the interest rate differentials with other countries have widened, the Swiss franc has depreciated somewhat.
rate path: Wider global rate differentials have weakened the franc, easing SNB intervention pressure but highlighting external tightening.

24 September 2026

We are also willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary.
balance sheet: Explicit readiness to buy FX caps CHF appreciation, i.e. an easing of financial conditions delivered off the policy rate, which effectively tightens the bar for further cuts.

Inflation has risen further since June, primarily due to higher energy prices. Medium-term inflationary pressure has increased only slightly.
inflation: Energy-driven headline rise but only slight medium-term pressure, reducing urgency for a policy response.

We will therefore continue to monitor the situation and adjust our monetary policy if necessary, to ensure appropriate monetary conditions. We are also willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary.
rate path: Data-dependent guidance with FX intervention optionality; limits CHF strength without pre-committing to rate moves.

At the same time, capacity utilisation was below average, especially in manufacturing, while unemployment rose again somewhat through to early summer.
labour market: Below-average capacity use and rising unemployment point to economic slack, supporting accommodative policy.

our monetary policy if necessary, to ensure appropriate monetary conditions.
rate path: Only residual guidance in this section: keeps the door open to further adjustment of policy without committing to a direction, so it leaves the terminal-rate read data-dependent rather than locked.

Official documents

Background reading

18 June 2026 press conference · 24 September 2026 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Methodology