Swiss National Bank Press conference comparison — 18 June 2026 vs 24 September 2026
This Swiss National Bank press conference comparison covers 18 June 2026 and 24 September 2026. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. Across the two assessments the SNB has kept the policy rate pinned at zero and left its guidance open-ended, with the substantive change being rhetorical: softer labour-market slack and energy-only inflation give it more room to look through the price uptick, while the FX intervention commitment is stated less emphatically than in June. The overall direction of travel is a continued hold with an easing bias intact but less actively flagged, which points to…
What changed
More dovish. Across the two assessments the SNB has kept the policy rate pinned at zero and left its guidance open-ended, with the substantive change being rhetorical: softer labour-market slack and energy-only inflation give it more room to look through the price uptick, while the FX intervention commitment is stated less emphatically than in June. The overall direction of travel is a continued hold with an easing bias intact but less actively flagged, which points to no change in rates at the next decision unless the franc strengthens sharply enough to revive the intervention lever.
- Inflation — More dovish. The inflation assessment is if anything more forgiving than in June: the uptick has extended but is again attributed primarily to energy prices, with medium-term pressure said to have risen only slightly, giving cover to hold at zero rather than tighten — a mild dovish tilt versus June's 'virtually unchanged' medium-term framing.
- Labour Market — More dovish. June's note that unemployment had 'risen somewhat' is reinforced with explicit slack language — capacity utilisation below average, especially in manufacturing, and a further rise in unemployment into early summer — keeping the bias against any near-term tightening.
- Rate Path — Little changed. The policy rate is held at 0% with unchanged sight-deposit remuneration and the same open-ended, data-dependent guidance, so no directional signal has been added even though the statement now points to a roughly 3% trade-weighted franc depreciation as the de facto easing channel.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Readiness to intervene in the FX market is retained, but June's repeated 'increased willingness' — including the explicit March step-up — is pared back to a generic 'willing to intervene as necessary', a modest reduction in the FX-easing bias rather than a new direction.
Key wording
If necessary, we have an increased willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market. We thereby counter a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability in Switzerland.
Inflation has risen in recent months as a result of higher energy prices. Medium-term inflationary pressure, however, is virtually unchanged compared with the last monetary policy assessment.
Our forecast is based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0% over the entire forecast horizon.
Despite this positive development overall, unemployment has risen somewhat since the last monetary policy assessment.
We therefore increased our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market at the beginning of March.
Interest rates in the major currency areas have since risen, in part because markets expect monetary policy tightening there due to the higher inflation. As the interest rate differentials with other countries have widened, the Swiss franc has depreciated somewhat.
We are also willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary.
Inflation has risen further since June, primarily due to higher energy prices. Medium-term inflationary pressure has increased only slightly.
Since our last assessment, the Swiss franc has depreciated by around 3% on a trade-weighted basis. This depreciation was in line with the widening of interest rate differentials between the major currency areas and Switzerland.
At the same time, capacity utilisation was below average, especially in manufacturing, while unemployment rose again somewhat through to early summer.
Uncertainty about inflation and economic developments remains high, particularly regarding further developments in energy prices and their impact. We will therefore continue to monitor the situation and adjust our monetary policy if necessary, to ensure appropriate monetary conditions.
our monetary policy if necessary, to ensure appropriate monetary conditions.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
18 June 2026 press conference · 24 September 2026 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Methodology
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