Bank of Japan Press conference comparison — 23 January 2026 vs 28 April 2026

This Bank of Japan press conference comparison covers 23 January 2026 and 28 April 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The direction of travel between January and April is hawkish: the hold at 0.75% is unchanged, but the inflation outlook has been revised up, price risks are now skewed firmly to the upside while growth risks tilt down, and the guidance linking future hikes to economic improvement has been stripped out. That combination — more dissents, less conditionality, and an explicit warning that the Bank could be forced to tighten sharply — keeps the…

What changed

More hawkish. The direction of travel between January and April is hawkish: the hold at 0.75% is unchanged, but the inflation outlook has been revised up, price risks are now skewed firmly to the upside while growth risks tilt down, and the guidance linking future hikes to economic improvement has been stripped out. That combination — more dissents, less conditionality, and an explicit warning that the Bank could be forced to tighten sharply — keeps the next meeting live and suggests the bar for another hike is now lower than it was in January.

Inflation — More hawkish. The inflation assessment hardened materially — the prior meeting's near-term dip below 2% is replaced by a projection that wage pass-through and crude oil lift fiscal 2026 inflation above 2%, with upside price risks explicitly judged larger and the risk of an overshoot flagged.
Labour Market — More hawkish. Labour-market framing shifts from largely implicit to an explicit hawkish pillar, with a 'strong labour shortage' cited as sustaining a mutually reinforcing wage-price cycle and lifting medium- to long-term inflation expectations.
Rate Path — More hawkish. Forward guidance tightens: the conditional 'in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices' formula is deleted, the hold at 0.75% comes with three dissents including an explicit Tamura motion for 1.0%, and the Bank states it will keep raising rates and warns it could be forced to tighten strongly if underlying inflation overshoots.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance-sheet or JGB market-operations passage appears in the current signal set, so the prior meeting's dovish flagging of unstable super-long bond supply-demand and readiness for coordinated market operations has simply dropped out rather than reversed.

Key wording

23 January 2026

At today's meeting, the Bank decided by a majority vote to maintain the guideline for money market operations, encouraging the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.75%.
rate path: Rates held at 0.75%, a no-change decision that is dovish relative to the proposed hike.

Governor Takata submitted a proposal to raise the policy interest rate to around 1.0%, arguing that the price stability target has been broadly achieved and that, with overseas economies in a recovery phase, the upside risks to domestic prices are high; however, the proposal was rejected by a majority vote.
rate path: A rejected hike proposal signals internal support for tighter policy, hinting at future rate increases.

Looking ahead, as the impact of rising food prices such as rice diminishes, and with the effects of the government's measures against high prices, the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI excluding fresh food is expected to narrow its positive margin to below 2 percent in the first half of this year. Nevertheless, during this period, the mechanism in which wages and prices mutually reference each other and rise gradually is maintained, and the underlying rate of increase in consumer prices is expected to continue rising moderately.
inflation: Near-term inflation dip below 2% is offset by underlying upward momentum, supporting a gradual tightening path.

As for the risk balance, the risks to both the economic and price outlooks are broadly balanced to the upside and downside.
rate path: Balanced risks give no clear directional signal, leaving policy data-dependent.

Given that the current real interest rate is at an extremely low level, if the above economic and price outlook is realized, the Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate in accordance with improvements in economic and price conditions and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation.
rate path: Explicitly commits to further hikes if the outlook is met, reinforcing the tightening bias.

At present, since firms' price- and wage-setting behavior appears to have become more proactive recently, we would like to pay attention to the possibility that the degree of pass-through to domestic prices, or the degree of response of domestic prices to import prices, may have increased. We would also like to be attentive to the possibility that such movements in domestic prices could affect inflation expectations and thereby influence underlying inflation.
inflation: BOJ sees greater FX pass-through into domestic prices as firm behavior shifts; raises odds of upward inflation revisions.

28 April 2026

At today's Monetary Policy Meeting, we decided by majority vote to maintain the guideline for money market operations of encouraging the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.75 percent. Member Nakagawa, while noting uncertainty over the Middle East situation, judged that based on economic conditions, under accommodative financial conditions, the upside risk to prices is high; Member Takata judged that the price stability target has been broadly achieved and that the upside risk to domestic prices from second-round effects of overseas-originated price increases has already heightened; and Member Tamura, as upside risks to prices are expanding significantly, in order to move even slightly closer to the neutral interest rate, proposed a motion to raise the policy interest rate to around 1.0 percent; all three submitted this proposal, but it was rejected by majority vote.
rate path: Hold at 0.75% masks three dissents, including an explicit Tamura motion for 1.0%, signaling strong hawkish pressure.

As for the balance of risks, centered on fiscal 2026, downside risks are judged to be larger for the economic outlook, and upside risks are judged to be larger for the price outlook.
rate path: Flags larger upside price risks, keeping inflation concerns central to the rate path despite growth downside.

Looking ahead, as the pass-through of wage increases to selling prices continues, the rise in crude oil prices will act in the direction of pushing up prices, mainly for energy prices and goods prices, so fiscal 2026 is projected to be in the upper 2 percent range.
inflation: Projects inflation above 2% in fiscal 2026, reinforcing the case for further policy normalization.

As the Bank of Japan, given that the underlying rate of inflation is approaching 2 percent and that the current real interest rate is at an extremely low level, we believe that it will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation in accordance with economic activity, prices, and financial conditions.
rate path: Explicit guidance for continued rate hikes and reduced accommodation, with real rates described as extremely low.

First, regarding the first question, as I said earlier, in this Outlook Report, centered on fiscal 2026, we judge that downside risks are large for the economic outlook and upside risks are large for the price outlook.
rate path: Flags stagflationary skew—upside price risks with growth downside—keeping a tightening bias alive.

On the price side, although the economic slowdown accompanying the Middle East situation acts in the direction of pushing down the underlying rate of inflation through deterioration in the output gap and other factors, on the whole, upside risks are considered to be larger.
inflation: BOJ sees price risks skewed to the upside even with a growth hit, supporting eventual rate hikes.

Official documents

Background reading

23 January 2026 press conference · 28 April 2026 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology