Bank of Japan Press conference comparison — 23 January 2026 vs 28 April 2026

This Bank of Japan press conference comparison covers 23 January 2026 and 28 April 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. April 2026 holds rates at 0.75%, but the signal set is more hawkish than January: three dissents for a 1.0% hike, significant upward inflation forecast revisions, and a reaction function that no longer ties further tightening to economic improvement. This raises the probability that the next move is a hike if upside price risks materialize, even as growth downside and reduced forecast certainty justify waiting for now.

What changed

More hawkish. April 2026 holds rates at 0.75%, but the signal set is more hawkish than January: three dissents for a 1.0% hike, significant upward inflation forecast revisions, and a reaction function that no longer ties further tightening to economic improvement. This raises the probability that the next move is a hike if upside price risks materialize, even as growth downside and reduced forecast certainty justify waiting for now.

Inflation — More hawkish. Current passages significantly upgrade the fiscal 2026 CPI outlook and explicitly judge price risks skewed to the upside, a material hawkish shift from the prior document's mid-2% inflation framing with more limited upside emphasis.
Labour Market — Little changed. No dedicated labour-market passage appears in the current signal set to compare with the prior document's evidence of rising wage pass-through, so no directional shift is discernible.
Rate Path — More hawkish. The hold at 0.75% is paired with three dissents for a 1.0% hike, removal of the condition tying hikes to economic improvement, and explicit optionality to act before inflation data confirm the risk, a clear hawkish shift from the prior document's single dissent and more conditional tightening bias.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. The current signal set contains no balance-sheet or JGB operations passage versus the prior document's monitoring of unstable super-long supply-demand and readiness for flexible operations, so the stance is unchanged.

Key wording

23 January 2026

At today's meeting, the Policy Board decided by a majority vote to maintain the guideline for market operations of encouraging the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.75%.
rate path: Confirms the BoJ held rates at 0.75%, so the immediate policy action is a pause rather than a hike.

Member Takata proposed a motion to raise the policy interest rate to around 1.0%, arguing that the price stability target has been broadly achieved and that, with overseas economies in a recovery phase, the upside risks to domestic prices are high, but the motion was rejected by a majority vote.
rate path: Reveals a hawkish dissent for an immediate hike to 1.0%, but the rejection shows the majority still prefers to wait.

Regarding prices, the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) is currently in the mid-2% range, reflecting the effects of rising food prices such as rice, while the pass-through of wage increases to selling prices continues.
inflation: Inflation is still mid-2% with wage pass-through continuing, supporting the case for further normalization.

Regarding the risk balance, we consider that the outlook for both economic activity and prices is broadly balanced on the upside and downside.
rate path: Balanced risks reduce the urgency for an imminent hike and justify a meeting-by-meeting approach.

Given that the current real interest rate is at a very low level, if the outlook for economic activity and prices described above is realized, we believe that the Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation in accordance with improvements in economic and price conditions.
rate path: Explicit tightening bias: further rate hikes remain the baseline if the outlook is realized.

On the impact on prices: naturally, yen weakness raises import prices, and their pass-through to domestic prices will be a factor pushing up the inflation rate for the time being.
inflation: Acknowledges weak yen as a near-term inflation impulse, keeping upside inflation and hike risk alive.

28 April 2026

At today's decision meeting, we decided by majority vote to maintain the monetary market operation policy of encouraging the uncollateralized call rate (overnight) to remain at around 0.75%.
rate path: Confirms the policy rate was held at 0.75%, so the baseline stance is unchanged.

Member Tamura, as upside risks to prices are expanding significantly, submitted a proposal to raise the policy interest rate to around 1.0% in order to move even slightly closer to the neutral rate — all three submitted this proposal, but it was rejected by majority vote.
rate path: Three members dissented in favor of a 1.0% hike, revealing hawkish pressure even though the proposal was rejected.

Compared with the previous Outlook Report, the price outlook for fiscal 2026 has been revised up significantly, and fiscal 2027 has also been revised up somewhat.
inflation: Material upward CPI forecast revisions strengthen the case for further rate increases.

As for the balance of risks, mainly for fiscal 2026, downside risks are judged to be larger for the economic outlook, and upside risks larger for the price outlook.
rate path: Stagflationary risk skew: larger price upside keeps the BOJ tilted toward tightening despite growth downside.

As the Bank of Japan, given that the underlying inflation rate is approaching 2% and that the current real interest rate is at a very low level, we believe that it will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation in accordance with economic, price, and financial conditions.
rate path: Explicit tightening bias: BOJ says it will continue raising the policy rate while real rates remain very low.

On the price front, while the economic slowdown accompanying the Middle East situation acts in the direction of pushing down the underlying inflation rate through deterioration in the output gap, overall, upside risks are considered larger.
inflation: Board explicitly judges price risks skewed to the upside despite a growth hit — argues against treating the oil shock as look-through-able.

Official documents

Background reading

23 January 2026 press conference · 28 April 2026 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology