Federal Reserve Press conference comparison — 14 June 2023 vs 1 November 2023
This Federal Reserve press conference comparison covers 14 June 2023 and 1 November 2023. Overall, the newer document was more dovish. The Fed has shifted from a strongly hawkish posture in June 2023 to a more balanced stance in November 2023, acknowledging progress on inflation and labour market rebalancing while still leaving the door open to further tightening. For the next decision, the committee is likely to hold rates steady and adopt a wait-and-see approach, with risks becoming more two-sided.
What changed
More dovish. The Fed has shifted from a strongly hawkish posture in June 2023 to a more balanced stance in November 2023, acknowledging progress on inflation and labour market rebalancing while still leaving the door open to further tightening. For the next decision, the committee is likely to hold rates steady and adopt a wait-and-see approach, with risks becoming more two-sided.
- Inflation — Little changed. Prior emphasized inflation still having 'a long way to go' while current acknowledges progress but downplays good data as 'only the beginning', resulting in a slightly less hawkish but still cautious tone.
- Labour Market — More dovish. Prior described labor market as 'very tight', whereas current notes it is 'tight but supply and demand conditions continue to come into better balance', indicating easing tightness.
- Rate Path — More dovish. Prior projected further rate increases and a significantly higher median dot, while current signals that the hiking cycle is near its end, risks are more two-sided, and the committee is not considering rate cuts yet but is closer to the terminal rate.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Prior had no explicit balance sheet signals, and current confirms no change to the pace of runoff, with financial conditions tightening noted but not acted upon.
Key wording
today we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.
nearly all Committee participants view it as likely that some further rate increases will be appropriate this year to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time.
Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year. Nonetheless, inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go.
the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 5.6 percent at the end of this year
we judged it prudent to hold the target range steady to allow the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy.
The labor market remains very tight.
Today, we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.
Evidence of growth persistently above potential, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy.
But a few months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal.
We’re not confident yet that we have achieved such a stance.
persistent changes in broader financial conditions can have implications for the path of monetary policy.
The labor market remains tight, but supply and demand conditions continue to come into better balance.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
14 June 2023 press conference · 1 November 2023 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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