Federal Reserve Press conference comparison — 26 July 2023 vs 20 September 2023
This Federal Reserve press conference comparison covers 26 July 2023 and 20 September 2023. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The September statement held rates steady but delivered a hawkish pivot via the SEP and forward guidance, signalling that policy will remain restrictive for longer and that another hike remains possible. The committee is prioritising inflation credibility over growth concerns, keeping the door open for further tightening if data warrants.
What changed
More hawkish. The September statement held rates steady but delivered a hawkish pivot via the SEP and forward guidance, signalling that policy will remain restrictive for longer and that another hike remains possible. The committee is prioritising inflation credibility over growth concerns, keeping the door open for further tightening if data warrants.
- Inflation — Little changed. Both documents stress inflation is still far from target and progress is insufficient, with no material change in tone.
- Labour Market — Little changed. Labour market remains tight but rebalancing in both documents; no significant shift in characterisation.
- Rate Path — More hawkish. Current document pauses rate hikes but projects higher-for-longer rates and signals a further hike is likely, a hawkish shift from prior data-dependent stance.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Both documents reaffirm ongoing balance sheet reduction at a brisk pace; no change in approach.
Key wording
Today we took another step by raising our policy interest rate ¼ percentage point, and we are continuing to reduce our securities holdings at a brisk pace.
We will continue to take a data-dependent approach in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate.
Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year. Nonetheless, the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go.
The labor market remains very tight. Over the past three months, job gains averaged 244,000 jobs per month, a pace below that seen earlier in the year but still a strong pace. The unemployment rate remains low at 3.6 percent.
Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions.
We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks.
Today, we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings.
If the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 5.6 percent at the end of this year, 5.1 percent at the end of 2024, and 3.9 percent at the end of 2025.
Nevertheless, the progress—process of getting inflation sustainably down to 2 percent has a long way to go.
The labor market remains tight, but supply and demand conditions continue to come into better balance.
We’re prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and we intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we’re confident that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our objective.
We decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate where it is—at 5¼ to 5½ percent—while continuing to reduce our securities holdings.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
26 July 2023 press conference · 20 September 2023 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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