Federal Reserve Press conference comparison — 17 September 2025 vs 28 January 2026

This Federal Reserve press conference comparison covers 17 September 2025 and 28 January 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The Fed has paused its easing cycle after three cuts, with inflation proving stickier and the labor market showing signs of stabilization. The next decision will hinge on whether inflation resumes its decline and whether labor market weakness reemerges; for now, the bias is toward a prolonged hold.

What changed

More hawkish. The Fed has paused its easing cycle after three cuts, with inflation proving stickier and the labor market showing signs of stabilization. The next decision will hinge on whether inflation resumes its decline and whether labor market weakness reemerges; for now, the bias is toward a prolonged hold.

Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation readings slightly higher and no progress toward target, with core PCE at 3.0% versus 2.9% previously, and the committee highlighting persistent tariff pass-through risks.
Labour Market — Little changed. Labor market language shifted from 'softening with downside risks' to 'may be stabilizing,' reducing the urgency for further easing.
Rate Path — More hawkish. The prior document signaled a dovish cut cycle with further easing, while the current document holds rates and emphasizes data dependence without a preset course, with some hawkish commentary on strong growth.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. Balance sheet language is absent in the current document; prior neutral guidance on nearing ample reserves remains unchanged.

Key wording

17 September 2025

today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point. ... the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by ¼ percentage point to 4 to 4¼ percent
rate path: 25bp cut as expected but signals easing bias amid rising risks

Payroll job gains have slowed significantly to a pace of just 29,000 per month over the past three months. ... the downside risks to employment appear to have risen.
labour market: Sharp slowdown in hiring reinforces urgency for rate cuts

total PCE prices rose 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending in August and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.9 percent. These readings are higher than earlier in the year, as inflation for goods has picked up.
inflation: Inflation remains above target and recently accelerated, complicating the easing cycle

In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation. With downside risks to employment having increased, the balance of risks has shifted.
rate path: Explicit acknowledgment of asymmetric risks favors further cuts

The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.6 percent at the end of this year, 3.4 percent at the end of 2026, and 3.1 percent at the end of 2027. This path is ¼ percentage point lower than projected in June.
rate path: Dot plot lowered, implying more easing than previously signaled

I think if you go back to April and now look at the revised job-creation numbers for May, June, July, and August, you can kind of—I can no longer say that. So what that means is that the risks, which—the risks were clearly tilted toward inflation. I would say they’re moving toward equality.
rate path: Risks shifting to balanced; less need for restrictive policy, justifies cuts.

28 January 2026

today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.
rate path: Rate hold after 75bp of cuts confirms a pause.

In the labor market, indicators suggest that conditions may be stabilizing after a period of gradual softening.
labour market: Labor market not worsening further, but still soft; no tightening signal.

Estimates based on the consumer price index indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.9 percent over the 12 months ending in December and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 3.0 percent.
inflation: Core inflation above 2% target, driven by tariffs; disinflation stalled.

Having lowered our policy rate by 75 basis points over the course of our previous three meetings, we see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward both our maximum-employment and 2 percent inflation goals.
rate path: Powell signals the Committee is comfortable with the current rate; no urgency to cut further.

We are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
rate path: Standard data-dependent language; leaves all options open.

we’re well positioned to address the risks that we face on both sides of our dual mandate, and we’ll continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting based on the incoming data implications for—and the implications for the outlook and the balance of risks. Haven’t made any decisions about future meetings, but the economy is growing at a solid pace, the unemployment rate has been broadly stable, and inflation remains somewhat elevated.
rate path: Emphasizes data-dependence and no rush; inflation still elevated supports hold.

Official documents

Background reading

17 September 2025 press conference · 28 January 2026 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology