Federal Reserve Press conference comparison — 29 October 2025 vs 28 January 2026
This Federal Reserve press conference comparison covers 29 October 2025 and 28 January 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The January 2026 statement marks a hawkish pause: the Fed stopped cutting, highlighted stalled inflation progress, and described labor market stabilization. This suggests rates will remain on hold unless inflation recedes or labor weakens materially, delaying the next cut.
What changed
More hawkish. The January 2026 statement marks a hawkish pause: the Fed stopped cutting, highlighted stalled inflation progress, and described labor market stabilization. This suggests rates will remain on hold unless inflation recedes or labor weakens materially, delaying the next cut.
- Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation rhetoric has hardened: core PCE at 3.0% with no progress, replacing prior mixed signals of near-target core ex-tariffs and transitory tariff effects.
- Labour Market — More hawkish. Labor market characterization shifted from alarm ('job creation near zero') to stabilization ('stabilizing', 'not worsening'), reducing urgency for further easing.
- Rate Path — More hawkish. The Committee paused after 75bp of cuts, removing pre-commitment to easing and emphasizing data-dependence, a hawkish step back from prior dovish action and uncertain December outlook.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Balance sheet absent from current key passages; prior dovish signals (end runoff, freeze size) are not revisited, indicating no change.
Key wording
today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.
In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation.
A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion—far from it. Policy is not on a preset course.
At today’s meeting, the Committee also decided to conclude the reduction of our aggregate securities holdings as of December 1.
a further reduction to the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion
they were strongly differing views
today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.
Having lowered our policy rate by 75 basis points over the course of our previous three meetings, we see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward both our maximum-employment and 2 percent inflation goals.
We are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
we’re well positioned to address the risks that we face on both sides of our dual mandate, and we’ll continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting based on the incoming data implications for—and the implications for the outlook and the balance of risks. Haven’t made any decisions about future meetings, but the economy is growing at a solid pace, the unemployment rate has been broadly stable, and inflation remains somewhat elevated.
I think—and many of my colleagues think—it’s hard to look at the incoming data and say that policy’s significantly restrictive at this time. It may be—it may be sort of loosely neutral, or it may be somewhat restrictive.
there was broad support on the Committee for holding today... some people did want to cut and dissented.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
29 October 2025 press conference · 28 January 2026 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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