Federal Reserve Press conference comparison — 10 December 2025 vs 28 January 2026
This Federal Reserve press conference comparison covers 10 December 2025 and 28 January 2026. Overall, the newer document was mixed. The Federal Reserve paused after 75bp of cuts, maintaining a cautiously dovish stance amid sticky but transitory inflation and a stabilizing labor market. The next decision hinges on whether tariff-driven inflation peaks and labor data softens, with Powell signalling openness to further easing if conditions deteriorate.
What changed
Mixed. The Federal Reserve paused after 75bp of cuts, maintaining a cautiously dovish stance amid sticky but transitory inflation and a stabilizing labor market. The next decision hinges on whether tariff-driven inflation peaks and labor data softens, with Powell signalling openness to further easing if conditions deteriorate.
- Inflation — More hawkish. Inflation data show core PCE at 3.0% with no progress over the past year, shifting from prior transitory view to a more cautious tone, though still attributed to tariffs.
- Labour Market — Little changed. Labour market language shifted from prior softening to stabilization, but with dovish triggers if conditions worsen, balancing the overall assessment.
- Rate Path — More dovish. Rate hold with dovish undertones: downplays restrictiveness, notes dissenters wanting a cut, and conditions future cuts on tariff effects fading or labor weakening.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. No material change in balance sheet discussion between documents.
Key wording
today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by ¼ percentage point.
In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation.
with downside risks to employment having risen in recent months, the balance of risks has shifted.
A reasonable base case is that the effects of tariffs on inflation will be relatively short lived—effectively a one-time shift in the price level. Our obligation is to make sure that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem.
In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment appear to have risen in recent months.
Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.
Having lowered our policy rate by 75 basis points over the course of our previous three meetings, we see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward both our maximum-employment and 2 percent inflation goals.
We are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
Estimates based on the consumer price index indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.9 percent over the 12 months ending in December and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 3.0 percent.
In the labor market, indicators suggest that conditions may be stabilizing after a period of gradual softening.
we’re well positioned to address the risks that we face on both sides of our dual mandate, and we’ll continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting based on the incoming data implications for—and the implications for the outlook and the balance of risks. Haven’t made any decisions about future meetings, but the economy is growing at a solid pace, the unemployment rate has been broadly stable, and inflation remains somewhat elevated.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
10 December 2025 press conference · 28 January 2026 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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