Riksbank Statement comparison — 20 August 2026 vs 24 September 2026

This Riksbank statement comparison covers 20 August 2026 and 24 September 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The Riksbank held the policy rate at 1.75 per cent but hardened its forward guidance decisively, telling markets the rate path must be raised more than projected in June and that the first increase is expected before the end of this year. With inflation risks now skewed firmly to the upside and the labour market no longer supplying a counterweight, the bar for a near-term hike has fallen and the next meeting is likely to deliver one…

What changed

More hawkish. The Riksbank held the policy rate at 1.75 per cent but hardened its forward guidance decisively, telling markets the rate path must be raised more than projected in June and that the first increase is expected before the end of this year. With inflation risks now skewed firmly to the upside and the labour market no longer supplying a counterweight, the bar for a near-term hike has fallen and the next meeting is likely to deliver one unless incoming activity and inflation data deteriorate sharply.

Inflation — More hawkish. The inflation narrative moves from a genuinely two-sided assessment — upside supply-shock risk balanced against falling commodity prices and underlying inflation near 2 per cent — to a one-directional upside framing in which pressures remain above normal, inflation is expected to rise in the near term, and higher oil, electricity, fuel and a weaker krona are named as live cost channels.
Labour Market — More hawkish. Labour-market language shifts from a dovish drag ('somewhat weaker than expected') to a neutral-to-supportive 'some improvement', removing one of the two offsets that restrained the tightening case in the prior document.
Rate Path — More hawkish. Forward guidance escalates from a hold with a residual 'probability of a rate increase later this year' to an explicit upward revision of the projected path relative to June, time-based guidance that increases will begin this year, and an asymmetric option to hike faster if inflation proves more persistent.
Balance Sheet — Little changed. Neither document's key passages address balance-sheet policy, so no signal shift is identified on this topic.

Key wording

20 August 2026

During the summer, both growth and inflation have been higher than was forecast in June, and there is still a risk of underlying inflation becoming too high in the wake of the supply shocks in the Middle East.
inflation: Elevated inflation and growth data support a tightening bias.

However, the picture is not clear-cut; for instance, companies’ pricing plans have been subdued, disruptions in global supply chains have declined and the labour market has been somewhat weaker than expected.
labour market: Offsetting disinflationary forces and a weak labour market limit the hawkish case.

The Riksbank has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent and assesses that the probability of a rate increase later this year remains.
rate path: Hold with a tightening bias — markets will price a hike risk.

If the unexpectedly high inflation during the summer were to be the start of a larger and more lasting upturn in inflation, the Riksbank would adjust its monetary policy in a tighter direction.
rate path: Explicit conditionality for a hike — key trigger for future policy.

The oil price and certain other commodity prices have come down since the spring and there are signs that markets and companies have been able to adapt to the situation.
inflation: Falling commodity prices and adaptation reduce the supply-shock inflation risk.

The more underlying inflation that excludes both energy prices and the direct effects of the temporary fiscal policy measures is relatively close to 2 per cent.
inflation: Underlying inflation near target — no immediate urgency to tighten.

24 September 2026

Indicators point to inflationary pressures still being above normal, and inflation is expected to rise in the near term.
inflation: Near-term inflation pickup supports further tightening despite headline inflation printing in line with forecast.

Indicators point to some improvement in the labour market.
labour market: Modest labour-market improvement supports the stronger-activity narrative underpinning the hawkish path.

The Executive Board has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent.
rate path: The actual decision is a hold, in line with expectations, so the signal comes from the guidance around it rather than the level itself.

The Executive Board therefore assesses that the policy rate should be raised more going forward than projected in the June forecast, for inflation to stabilise around 2 per cent.
rate path: An explicit upgrade of the projected rate path versus June is the key hawkish pivot for rates investors.

There are still risks that inflation may be higher than in the forecast. As the war is continuing, the fundamental reason for the supply shocks also remains.
inflation: The risk balance is skewed to the upside on inflation, the core justification for the hawkish tilt.

The price of oil, electricity and fuel has risen recently, and the krona has also continued to weaken.
inflation: Named cost and FX channels that could sustain above-target inflation and force faster hikes.

Official documents

Background reading

20 August 2026 statement · 24 September 2026 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Methodology