Riksbank Statement comparison — 17 June 2026 vs 24 September 2026
This Riksbank statement comparison covers 17 June 2026 and 24 September 2026. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The Riksbank has moved decisively from a wait-and-see hold with a tentative hiking bias to an explicit tightening path: it kept the rate at 1.75% but now says the policy rate should be raised more than projected in June, with liftoff expected this year. This signals that the next meeting is likely to deliver a hike unless the inflation and activity outlook deteriorates, and that a more persistent inflation upturn would prompt an even faster cycle.
What changed
More hawkish. The Riksbank has moved decisively from a wait-and-see hold with a tentative hiking bias to an explicit tightening path: it kept the rate at 1.75% but now says the policy rate should be raised more than projected in June, with liftoff expected this year. This signals that the next meeting is likely to deliver a hike unless the inflation and activity outlook deteriorates, and that a more persistent inflation upturn would prompt an even faster cycle.
- Inflation — More hawkish. The inflation assessment has flipped from "inflation in Sweden is low" to "inflationary pressures still being above normal" with an expected near-term rise, and the balance of risks now explicitly skewed to the upside.
- Labour Market — More hawkish. Activity has moved from "somewhat weaker than normal" to "some improvement in the labour market," removing the growth-based argument against tightening that held sway in June.
- Rate Path — More hawkish. Guidance has escalated from a raised probability of a hike later in the year to an explicit upgrade of the projected path — the policy rate should be raised more than in the June forecast, with increases expected to begin this year and a faster pace if inflation proves persistent.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. No balance-sheet language appears in either signal set, so there is no basis for a directional shift on this axis; the risk-balance discussion sits on the inflation and rate-path cards instead.
Key wording
Inflation in Sweden is low
economic activity is somewhat weaker than normal
the supply disruptions linked to the war in the Middle East have led to inflationary pressures rising and the risks of inflation becoming too high have increased.
The Executive Board assesses that it is well-balanced to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent now
the probability that the rate will be raised later this year has increased in relation to the assessment in March.
Indicators point to inflationary pressures still being above normal, and inflation is expected to rise in the near term.
Indicators point to some improvement in the labour market.
The Executive Board has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent.
The Executive Board therefore assesses that the policy rate should be raised more going forward than projected in the June forecast, for inflation to stabilise around 2 per cent.
If the outlook for inflation and economic activity remains unchanged, it is expected that the increases to the policy rate will begin this year.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
17 June 2026 statement · 24 September 2026 statement · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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