Bank of Japan Press conference comparison — 17 June 2025 vs 19 September 2025
This Bank of Japan press conference comparison covers 17 June 2025 and 19 September 2025. Overall, the newer document was more hawkish. The September 2025 statement shows a modest hawkish tilt on rate_path due to two dissenting votes for a hike and continued conditional forward guidance, while inflation and balance sheet assessments remain broadly unchanged with no new labour market discussion. This suggests the Bank is preparing markets for a potential rate hike in the coming months, likely in the October–January window, barring adverse economic surprises.
What changed
More hawkish. The September 2025 statement shows a modest hawkish tilt on rate_path due to two dissenting votes for a hike and continued conditional forward guidance, while inflation and balance sheet assessments remain broadly unchanged with no new labour market discussion. This suggests the Bank is preparing markets for a potential rate hike in the coming months, likely in the October–January window, barring adverse economic surprises.
- Inflation — Little changed. Both documents characterize inflation as above target but driven by temporary factors, with no material shift in assessment.
- Labour Market — Little changed. No labour market commentary in current document; prior concerns about tariff impact on wages are not repeated, implying a neutral stance.
- Rate Path — More hawkish. Current document features two hawkish dissenters proposing a hike and reaffirmed conditional commitment to further rate increases, a slight hawkish shift from prior's more mixed and dovish-leaning tone.
- Balance Sheet — Little changed. Bank of Japan announced the start of ETF and REIT disposals, a hawkish operational step, but the language emphasizes gradual and flexible implementation, representing no strong directional shift from prior QT reduction stance.
Key wording
Regarding the monetary market operations policy, we decided unanimously to maintain the current policy of encouraging the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain around 0.5%.
As a result, we decided by a majority vote to reduce the monthly planned purchase amount by approximately 400 billion yen per quarter until March 2026, and by approximately 200 billion yen per quarter from April to June 2026 onwards, with the goal of reaching approximately 2 trillion yen by January-March 2027.
Member Tamura submitted a proposal to reduce the monthly planned purchase amount by approximately 400 billion yen per quarter through January-March 2027, arguing that the formation of long-term interest rates should be left to the market and its participants; however, this proposal was rejected by a majority vote.
There are various risk factors surrounding the outlook, but uncertainty is extremely high, particularly regarding the future development of trade policies in various countries and the resulting trends in overseas economies and prices. We must closely monitor the impact on financial and foreign exchange markets, as well as on the Japanese economy and prices.
if the aforementioned economic and price outlook is realized, we believe we will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary easing in response to improvements in economic and price conditions.
we judged it appropriate to continue the reduction of 400 billion yen [per quarter] until January-March of next year, and from April 2026 onwards, reduce the monthly planned purchase amount by 200 billion yen [per quarter], reaching approximately 2 trillion yen by January-March 2027.
we decided by a majority vote to maintain the existing policy of encouraging the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
we judged it appropriate to decide to start the disposal of ETFs and others at this timing.
Regarding that, the basic policy for disposal is to allow for temporary adjustments or suspensions of the sale amount in the case of short-term market turmoil. However, if there is a more significant change, we would return to the basic policy and consider the matter, and if necessary, we would reconsider an appropriate response policy at a Policy Board meeting.
the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (excluding fresh food) is currently in the upper 2% range, due to the continued pass-through of wage increases to selling prices and the impact of rising food prices such as rice.
Member Takada submitted a proposal to raise the policy interest rate to around 0.75%, arguing that the norm of prices not rising has shifted and that the achievement of the price stability target has been broadly attained. Member Tamura also submitted a proposal to raise the policy rate to around 0.75%, citing the need to move closer to the neutral interest rate amid growing upside risks to prices.
The merit is that by selling gradually, we can minimize disruptive effects on the market.
Official documents
Background reading
Related
17 June 2025 press conference · 19 September 2025 press conference · Earlier meeting · Later meeting · Previous comparison · Next comparison · Methodology
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